Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Shimizu S-Pulsevs
Gamba OsakaOur model leans Gamba Osaka (35% probability), low confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Head-to-head record favours Gamba Osaka (1-2-3).
- Recent form favours Gamba Osaka.
- Gamba Osaka are dealing with notable absentees.
- Goals outlook: a tight, low-scoring game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Shimizu S-Pulse and Gamba Osaka. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 32% for Shimizu S-Pulse, 33% for the draw and 35% for Gamba Osaka.
Several signals point toward Gamba Osaka. Head-to-head record favours Gamba Osaka (1-2-3). Recent form favours Gamba Osaka.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Shimizu S-Pulse wins, 2 draws and 3 Gamba Osaka wins. Recent scorelines: 3-2, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2, 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 0-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Shimizu S-Pulse show L-L-L-W-W across their recent outings, while Gamba Osaka read W-W-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Gamba Osaka" (1X2): we rate it 35% versus the 31% implied by odds of 3.11 — an edge of 4.7 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Shimizu S-Pulse or Gamba Osaka?
Our model rates Gamba Osaka as the most likely outcome at 35% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Shimizu S-Pulse wins, 2 draws, 3 Gamba Osaka wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
illustrative trendPredictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.