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Poland Championship. Liga 1

Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Siedlce: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Wisla Krakow Wisla KrakowvsPogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce
Our predictionWisla Krakow to win
Confidence: High
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans Wisla Krakow (88% probability), high confidence.

Win probabilities

1 · Wisla Krakow88%
Draw3%
2 · Pogon Siedlce9%
1 · Wisla KrakowDraw2 · Pogon Siedlce
Team strength rating
Wisla Krakow
92
Pogon Siedlce
36
Full team comparison

Recent form

Wisla KrakowWLWDD
Pogon SiedlceWWLLW

Expected goals

2.73Wisla Krakow
xG
0.28Pogon Siedlce
Over 2.5 goals56%
Both teams to score23%

Most likely scorelines

2-018.3%
3-016.6%
1-013.4%
4-011.4%
5-06.2%
2-15.2%

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
051
1134
2185
3175
4113
562

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Wisla Krakow win1.07Fair (+0.7%)
Total goalsOver 2.51.74Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Wisla Krakow1.07+0.7%
1X2Draw29.00-0.2%
1X2Pogon Siedlce10.00-0.5%
O/U 2.5Over 2.51.74-1.8%
O/U 2.5Under 2.52.10-3.5%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Wisla Krakow Pogon Siedlce

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Wisla Krakow and Pogon Siedlce. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 88% for Wisla Krakow, 3% for the draw and 9% for Pogon Siedlce.

Several signals point toward Wisla Krakow. The odds point to a clear favourite. Head-to-head record favours Wisla Krakow (2-1-0). Wisla Krakow have home advantage.

Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 2 Wisla Krakow wins, 1 draws and 0 Pogon Siedlce wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 1-0, 1-3.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Wisla Krakow show W-L-W-D-D across their recent outings, while Pogon Siedlce read W-W-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 23%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Wisla Krakow or Pogon Siedlce?

Our model rates Wisla Krakow as the most likely outcome at 88% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Siedlce?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 3 meetings: 2 Wisla Krakow wins, 1 draws, 0 Pogon Siedlce wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

illustrative trend
32.0024.2516.508.751.00
Home 1.07 Draw 29.00 Away 10.00

Match statistics

Referee: 613a11c9f75a663f697a66c9
58
Possession
42
5
Total shots
3
2
Shots on target
0
1
Corners
0
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
6
Giger🟨20'
Biedrzycki W.41'

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'10

Wisla Krakow make it count (Biedrzycki W. (41')). It's 1–0 at this point.

20'🟨Giger41'Biedrzycki W.
Half-time

Half-time score: Wisla Krakow 1 – 0 Pogon Siedlce.

45–75'10

The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–0)

75–90'+10

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–0)

Full time: Wisla Krakow 10 Pogon Siedlce

League table

Poland Championship. Liga 1
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Wisla Krakow331931170:3268
2Slask Wroclaw331761069:4761
3KS Wieczysta Krakow33169869:4656
4Chrobry Glogow331611647:3554
5Ruch Chorzow331481152:4353
6LKS Lodz331410953:4751
7KSP Polonia Warszawa331411850:4850
8Puszcza Niepolomice331281344:3849
9Miedz Legnica331412750:5249
10Polonia Bytom331312855:4647
11Odra Opole3311111133:3844
12Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki3311111151:5444
13Stal Rzeszow331215646:5742
14Pogon Siedlce33915933:4136
15Stal Mielec33918647:6133
16Gornik Leczna335161238:5927
17Znicz Pruszkow33620737:6625
18GKS Tychy33521737:7122
Promotion - Premier League Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play-off: Round of 4) Relegation - Division 2

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.