Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Siedlce: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Wisla Krakow (88% probability), high confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 4 | ||||
| 2 | 18 | 5 | ||||
| 3 | 17 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 11 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 6 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Head-to-head record favours Wisla Krakow (2-1-0).
- Wisla Krakow have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Wisla Krakow and Pogon Siedlce. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 88% for Wisla Krakow, 3% for the draw and 9% for Pogon Siedlce.
Several signals point toward Wisla Krakow. The odds point to a clear favourite. Head-to-head record favours Wisla Krakow (2-1-0). Wisla Krakow have home advantage.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 2 Wisla Krakow wins, 1 draws and 0 Pogon Siedlce wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 1-0, 1-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Wisla Krakow show W-L-W-D-D across their recent outings, while Pogon Siedlce read W-W-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 23%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Wisla Krakow or Pogon Siedlce?
Our model rates Wisla Krakow as the most likely outcome at 88% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Siedlce?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Wisla Krakow wins, 1 draws, 0 Pogon Siedlce wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
illustrative trendMatch statistics
Referee: 613a11c9f75a663f697a66c9Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Wisla Krakow make it count (Biedrzycki W. (41')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Wisla Krakow 1 – 0 Pogon Siedlce.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–0)
League table
Poland Championship. Liga 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 70:32 | 68 | |
| 2 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 69:47 | 61 | |
| 3 | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 69:46 | 56 | |
| 4 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 47:35 | 54 | |
| 5 | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 52:43 | 53 | |
| 6 | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 53:47 | 51 | |
| 7 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 50:48 | 50 | |
| 8 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 44:38 | 49 | |
| 9 | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 50:52 | 49 | |
| 10 | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 55:46 | 47 | |
| 11 | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 33:38 | 44 | |
| 12 | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 51:54 | 44 | |
| 13 | 33 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 46:57 | 42 | |
| 14 | 33 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 33:41 | 36 | |
| 15 | 33 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 47:61 | 33 | |
| 16 | 33 | 5 | 16 | 12 | 38:59 | 27 | |
| 17 | 33 | 6 | 20 | 7 | 37:66 | 25 | |
| 18 | 33 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 37:71 | 22 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.