Emelec vs Club Social y Deportivo Macara: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Emelec and Club Social y Deportivo Macara. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 90% for Emelec, 1% for the draw and 9% for Club Social y Deportivo Macara.

Several signals point toward Emelec. The odds point to a clear favourite. Emelec have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 Emelec wins, 3 draws and 3 Club Social y Deportivo Macara wins. Recent scorelines: 0-2, 3-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-1.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-0 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Emelec show L-D-D-L-W across their recent outings, while Club Social y Deportivo Macara read D-L-W-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams to score at 17%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Club Social y Deportivo Macara" (1X2): we rate it 9% versus the 5% implied by odds of 21.00, an edge of 4.7 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.