Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepolomice: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Miedz Legnica (45% probability), high confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Head-to-head record favours Miedz Legnica (5-1-0).
- Recent form favours Miedz Legnica.
- Miedz Legnica have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Miedz Legnica and Puszcza Niepolomice. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 45% for Miedz Legnica, 23% for the draw and 32% for Puszcza Niepolomice.
Several signals point toward Miedz Legnica. The odds point to a clear favourite. Head-to-head record favours Miedz Legnica (5-1-0). Recent form favours Miedz Legnica.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 5 Miedz Legnica wins, 1 draws and 0 Puszcza Niepolomice wins. Recent scorelines: 1-3, 3-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Miedz Legnica show W-W-L-L-W across their recent outings, while Puszcza Niepolomice read L-D-L-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Miedz Legnica" (1X2): we rate it 45% versus the 39% implied by odds of 2.38 — an edge of 5.8 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Miedz Legnica or Puszcza Niepolomice?
Our model rates Miedz Legnica as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepolomice?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Miedz Legnica wins, 1 draws, 0 Puszcza Niepolomice wins.
Odds movement
illustrative trendMatch statistics
Referee: 60bb8bcdf75a663f69c4f8e9Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Grudzinski (19'), Walski (37')). Score moves to 1–1.
Half-time score: Miedz Legnica 1 – 1 Puszcza Niepolomice.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
League table
Poland Championship. Liga 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 70:32 | 68 | |
| 2 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 69:47 | 61 | |
| 3 | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 69:46 | 56 | |
| 4 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 47:35 | 54 | |
| 5 | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 52:43 | 53 | |
| 6 | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 53:47 | 51 | |
| 7 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 50:48 | 50 | |
| 8 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 44:38 | 49 | |
| 9 | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 50:52 | 49 | |
| 10 | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 55:46 | 47 | |
| 11 | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 33:38 | 44 | |
| 12 | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 51:54 | 44 | |
| 13 | 33 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 46:57 | 42 | |
| 14 | 33 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 33:41 | 36 | |
| 15 | 33 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 47:61 | 33 | |
| 16 | 33 | 5 | 16 | 12 | 38:59 | 27 | |
| 17 | 33 | 6 | 20 | 7 | 37:66 | 25 | |
| 18 | 33 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 37:71 | 22 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.