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Poland Championship. Liga 1

Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepolomice: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Miedz Legnica Miedz LegnicavsPuszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice
Our predictionMiedz Legnica to win
Confidence: High
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans Miedz Legnica (45% probability), high confidence.

Win probabilities

1 · Miedz Legnica45%
Draw23%
2 · Puszcza Niepolomice32%
1 · Miedz LegnicaDraw2 · Puszcza Niepolomice
Team strength rating
Miedz Legnica
71
Puszcza Niepolomice
34
Full team comparison

Recent form

Miedz LegnicaWWLLW
Puszcza NiepolomiceLDLDL

Expected goals

1.54Miedz Legnica
xG
1.07Puszcza Niepolomice
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score52%

Most likely scorelines

1-112.1%
1-011.3%
2-19.3%
2-08.7%
0-17.8%
0-07.3%

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07842
1111272
29952
3453
422
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Miedz Legnica win2.38Value (+5.8%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Miedz Legnica2.38+5.8%
1X2Draw3.75-2.4%
1X2Puszcza Niepolomice2.63-3.4%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Miedz Legnica Puszcza Niepolomice

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Miedz Legnica and Puszcza Niepolomice. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 45% for Miedz Legnica, 23% for the draw and 32% for Puszcza Niepolomice.

Several signals point toward Miedz Legnica. The odds point to a clear favourite. Head-to-head record favours Miedz Legnica (5-1-0). Recent form favours Miedz Legnica.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 5 Miedz Legnica wins, 1 draws and 0 Puszcza Niepolomice wins. Recent scorelines: 1-3, 3-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-1.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Miedz Legnica show W-W-L-L-W across their recent outings, while Puszcza Niepolomice read L-D-L-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Miedz Legnica" (1X2): we rate it 45% versus the 39% implied by odds of 2.38 — an edge of 5.8 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Miedz Legnica or Puszcza Niepolomice?

Our model rates Miedz Legnica as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 5 Miedz Legnica wins, 1 draws, 0 Puszcza Niepolomice wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

illustrative trend
4.143.653.162.672.18
Home 2.38 Draw 3.75 Away 2.63

Match statistics

Referee: 60bb8bcdf75a663f69c4f8e9
48
Possession
52
5
Total shots
7
1
Shots on target
2
3
Corners
2
0
Yellow cards
2
0
Offsides
0
5
Fouls
9
Grudzinski19'
21'🟨Walski
37'Walski
45'🟨Kasolik

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'11

An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Grudzinski (19'), Walski (37')). Score moves to 1–1.

19'Grudzinski21'🟨Walski37'Walski45'🟨Kasolik
Half-time

Half-time score: Miedz Legnica 1 – 1 Puszcza Niepolomice.

45–75'11

The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–1)

75–90'+11

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)

Full time: Miedz Legnica 11 Puszcza Niepolomice

League table

Poland Championship. Liga 1
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Wisla Krakow331931170:3268
2Slask Wroclaw331761069:4761
3KS Wieczysta Krakow33169869:4656
4Chrobry Glogow331611647:3554
5Ruch Chorzow331481152:4353
6LKS Lodz331410953:4751
7KSP Polonia Warszawa331411850:4850
8Puszcza Niepolomice331281344:3849
9Miedz Legnica331412750:5249
10Polonia Bytom331312855:4647
11Odra Opole3311111133:3844
12Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki3311111151:5444
13Stal Rzeszow331215646:5742
14Pogon Siedlce33915933:4136
15Stal Mielec33918647:6133
16Gornik Leczna335161238:5927
17Znicz Pruszkow33620737:6625
18GKS Tychy33521737:7122
Promotion - Premier League Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play-off: Round of 4) Relegation - Division 2

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.