Sollentuna vs Pitea: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Sollentuna (80% probability), high confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Pitea.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Sollentuna have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Sollentuna and Pitea. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 80% for Sollentuna, 5% for the draw and 15% for Pitea.
Several signals point toward Sollentuna. The odds point to a clear favourite. Sollentuna have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Sollentuna wins, 2 draws and 2 Pitea wins. Recent scorelines: 0-3, 2-1, 1-0, 2-4, 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Sollentuna show L-W-D-D-D across their recent outings, while Pitea read W-W-W-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 31%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Pitea" (1X2): we rate it 15% versus the 12% implied by odds of 7.50 — an edge of 3.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sollentuna or Pitea?
Our model rates Sollentuna as the most likely outcome at 80% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sollentuna vs Pitea?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Sollentuna wins, 2 draws, 2 Pitea wins.
Odds movement
illustrative trendMatch statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedPitea make it count (Adam Ingemarson (13')). It's 0–1 at this point.
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–1.
Half-time score: Sollentuna 0 – 1 Pitea.
Sollentuna make it count (Stenstrand (51'), Kack (67')). It's 2–1 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (2–1)
League table
Sweden. Division 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 21:8 | 19 | |
| 2 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:9 | 18 | |
| 3 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:10 | 15 | |
| 4 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 15 | |
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12:9 | 14 | |
| 6 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16:15 | 14 | |
| 7 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | 14 | |
| 8 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7:9 | 12 | |
| 9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:10 | 11 | |
| 10 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:15 | 11 | |
| 11 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:15 | 10 | |
| 12 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13:16 | 9 | |
| 13 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12:11 | 8 | |
| 14 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:15 | 8 | |
| 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:16 | 7 | |
| 16 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7:25 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.