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Sweden. Division 1

Sollentuna vs Pitea: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Sollentuna SollentunavsPitea Pitea
Our predictionSollentuna to win
Confidence: High
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans Sollentuna (80% probability), high confidence.

Win probabilities

1 · Sollentuna80%
Draw5%
2 · Pitea15%
1 · SollentunaDraw2 · Pitea
Team strength rating
Sollentuna
74
Pitea
50
Full team comparison

Recent form

SollentunaLWDDD
PiteaWWWWL

Expected goals

2.25Sollentuna
xG
0.44Pitea
Over 2.5 goals49%
Both teams to score31%

Most likely scorelines

2-017.2%
1-015.3%
3-012.9%
2-17.5%
4-07.2%
0-06.8%

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
073
11571
21782
31361
473
531

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Sollentuna win1.08Avoid (-4.7%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Pitea7.50+3.2%
1X2Draw29.00+1.5%
1X2Sollentuna1.08-4.7%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Sollentuna Pitea

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Sollentuna and Pitea. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 80% for Sollentuna, 5% for the draw and 15% for Pitea.

Several signals point toward Sollentuna. The odds point to a clear favourite. Sollentuna have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Sollentuna wins, 2 draws and 2 Pitea wins. Recent scorelines: 0-3, 2-1, 1-0, 2-4, 1-1.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Sollentuna show L-W-D-D-D across their recent outings, while Pitea read W-W-W-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 31%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Pitea" (1X2): we rate it 15% versus the 12% implied by odds of 7.50 — an edge of 3.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Sollentuna or Pitea?

Our model rates Sollentuna as the most likely outcome at 80% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Sollentuna vs Pitea?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 2 Sollentuna wins, 2 draws, 2 Pitea wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

illustrative trend
32.0024.2516.508.751.00
Home 1.08 Draw 29.00 Away 7.50

Match statistics

67
Possession
33
9
Total shots
2
2
Shots on target
1
6
Corners
2
0
Yellow cards
2
13'Adam Ingemarson
34'🟨Unknown
Rashidi D.48'
Stenstrand51'
59'Otto Norberg
Kack67'
Johannes Danho69'
72'🟨Unknown

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'01

Pitea make it count (Adam Ingemarson (13')). It's 0–1 at this point.

13'Adam Ingemarson
15–45'01

No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–1.

34'🟨Unknown
Half-time

Half-time score: Sollentuna 0 – 1 Pitea.

45–75'21

Sollentuna make it count (Stenstrand (51'), Kack (67')). It's 2–1 at this point.

48'Rashidi D.51'Stenstrand59'Otto Norberg67'Kack69'Johannes Danho72'🟨Unknown
75–90'+21

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (2–1)

Full time: Sollentuna 21 Pitea

League table

Sweden. Division 1
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Trelleborgs950421:819
2Lunds951319:918
3AFC Malmo942316:1015
4Rosengard942313:1115
5Atvidabergs842212:914
6Eskilsminne943216:1514
7Tvaakers94327:814
8Skovde AIK92167:912
9Jonkopings Sodra833212:1011
10Hassleholm IF934216:1511
11Trollhattan923412:1510
12BK Olympic936013:169
13Angelholms812512:118
14Kristianstads925210:158
15Laholms82519:167
16Utsiktens91717:254
Promotion - First League Promotion - Division 1. Norrland (Relegation (Play-off)) Sweden. Division 1 (Promotion - Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.