Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (72% probability), high confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Sportivo Ameliano have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Sportivo Ameliano and Sportivo Trinidense. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 7% for Sportivo Ameliano, 72% for the draw and 21% for Sportivo Trinidense.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Sportivo Ameliano wins, 2 draws and 2 Sportivo Trinidense wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Sportivo Ameliano show L-L-D-D-D across their recent outings, while Sportivo Trinidense read L-L-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sportivo Ameliano or Sportivo Trinidense?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 72% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Sportivo Ameliano wins, 2 draws, 2 Sportivo Trinidense wins.
Odds movement
illustrative trendMatch statistics
Referee: 602254e9f75a663f6992eb4fMatch story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Sportivo Ameliano make it count (Paredes (19')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Sportivo Ameliano 1 – 0 Sportivo Trinidense.
Sportivo Trinidense make it count (De la Cruz L. (47')). It's 1–1 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
League table
Paraguay. Primera Division (Apertura)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 37:17 | 49 | |
| 2 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 29:21 | 36 | |
| 3 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 28:22 | 35 | |
| 4 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 26:19 | 33 | |
| 5 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 33:24 | 31 | |
| 6 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 28:23 | 29 | |
| 7 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 27:23 | 29 | |
| 8 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 35:32 | 28 | |
| 9 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 15:24 | 23 | |
| 10 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 18:35 | 22 | |
| 11 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 24:33 | 20 | |
| 12 | 22 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 14:41 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.