← All predictions
Paraguay. Primera Division

Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo AmelianovsSportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: High
Score hint: 1-1

Our model leans the draw (72% probability), high confidence.

Win probabilities

1 · Sportivo Ameliano7%
Draw72%
2 · Sportivo Trinidense21%
1 · Sportivo AmelianoDraw2 · Sportivo Trinidense
Team strength rating
Sportivo Ameliano
24
Sportivo Trinidense
32
Full team comparison

Recent form

Sportivo AmelianoLLDDD
Sportivo TrinidenseLLWLL

Expected goals

1.18Sportivo Ameliano
xG
1.41Sportivo Trinidense
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score52%

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%
0-110.6%
1-08.9%
1-28.8%
0-07.6%
0-27.5%

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
0811731
1913941
25752
3232
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.30Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Sportivo Ameliano14.20+0.7%
1X2Draw1.30-0.1%
1X2Sportivo Trinidense4.32-0.6%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Trinidense

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Sportivo Ameliano and Sportivo Trinidense. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 7% for Sportivo Ameliano, 72% for the draw and 21% for Sportivo Trinidense.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Sportivo Ameliano wins, 2 draws and 2 Sportivo Trinidense wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-2.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Sportivo Ameliano show L-L-D-D-D across their recent outings, while Sportivo Trinidense read L-L-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Sportivo Ameliano or Sportivo Trinidense?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 72% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense?

A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 2 Sportivo Ameliano wins, 2 draws, 2 Sportivo Trinidense wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

illustrative trend
15.6712.058.434.811.20
Home 14.20 Draw 1.30 Away 4.32

Match statistics

Referee: 602254e9f75a663f6992eb4f
0.14
Expected goals (xG)
1.59
69
Possession
31
4
Total shots
9
3
Shots on target
2
0
Big Chances
2
1
Corners
3
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Offsides
2
59
Passes in final third
52
6
Fouls
9
Paredes19'
25'Romero Gonzalez
Cabral🟨37'
46'Melgarejo D.
46'De la Cruz L.
46'Rayer
Favero46'
47'De la Cruz L.
Unknown🟨53'

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'10

Sportivo Ameliano make it count (Paredes (19')). It's 1–0 at this point.

19'Paredes25'Romero Gonzalez37'🟨Cabral
Half-time

Half-time score: Sportivo Ameliano 1 – 0 Sportivo Trinidense.

45–75'11

Sportivo Trinidense make it count (De la Cruz L. (47')). It's 1–1 at this point.

46'Melgarejo D.46'De la Cruz L.46'Rayer46'Favero47'De la Cruz L.53'🟨Unknown
75–90'+11

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)

Full time: Sportivo Ameliano 11 Sportivo Trinidense

League table

Paraguay. Primera Division (Apertura)
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Club Olimpia22153437:1749
2Club Nacional Asuncion2193929:2136
3Cerro Porteno21106528:2235
4Sportivo Ameliano2184926:1933
5Club Libertad2198433:2431
6Sportivo Trinidense2176828:2329
7Club Guarani2277827:2329
8Deportivo Recoleta22810435:3228
9Club Rubio Nu21610515:2423
102 de Mayo22510718:3522
11Sportivo Luqueno22512524:3320
12Club Sportivo San Lorenzo22313614:4115
Promotion - Copa Libertadores - (Group stage)

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.