Estudiantes de Merida vs Metropolitanos: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Estudiantes de Meridavs
MetropolitanosOur model leans Estudiantes de Merida (39% probability), low confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- Head-to-head record favours Metropolitanos (2-0-4).
- Estudiantes de Merida have home advantage.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Estudiantes de Merida and Metropolitanos. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 39% for Estudiantes de Merida, 26% for the draw and 36% for Metropolitanos.
Several signals point toward Estudiantes de Merida. Estudiantes de Merida have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Estudiantes de Merida wins, 0 draws and 4 Metropolitanos wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-2, 3-2.
On form, Estudiantes de Merida show W-L-W-L-W across their recent outings, while Metropolitanos read W-D-L-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Estudiantes de Merida or Metropolitanos?
Our model rates Estudiantes de Merida as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Estudiantes de Merida wins, 0 draws, 4 Metropolitanos wins.
Match statistics
Referee: 60aeae70f75a663f69d153c7Match story
How the game unfoldedMetropolitanos make it count (Gutierrez J. (8')). It's 0–1 at this point.
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–1)
Half-time score: Estudiantes de Merida 0 – 1 Metropolitanos.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.