Stade Marocain vs Widad Fez: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Stade Marocain (37% probability), low confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Stade Marocain.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Stade Marocain have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Stade Marocain and Widad Fez. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 37% for Stade Marocain, 26% for the draw and 36% for Widad Fez.
Several signals point toward Stade Marocain. Recent form favours Stade Marocain. Stade Marocain have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Stade Marocain wins, 3 draws and 2 Widad Fez wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 1-0, 1-2, 1-1, 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Stade Marocain show W-L-L-L-L across their recent outings, while Widad Fez read L-D-L-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Stade Marocain" (1X2): we rate it 37% versus the 35% implied by odds of 2.64 — an edge of 2.1 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Stade Marocain or Widad Fez?
Our model rates Stade Marocain as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Stade Marocain vs Widad Fez?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Stade Marocain wins, 3 draws, 2 Widad Fez wins.
Odds movement
illustrative trendLeague table
Morocco. Botola 2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 29:21 | 44 | |
| 2 | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 26:20 | 42 | |
| 3 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 29:20 | 37 | |
| 4 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 23:14 | 37 | |
| 5 | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 21:17 | 35 | |
| 6 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 30:30 | 34 | |
| 7 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28:27 | 32 | |
| 8 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 20:29 | 32 | |
| 9 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 26:23 | 31 | |
| 10 | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 30:33 | 31 | |
| 11 | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 22:26 | 30 | |
| 12 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 20:18 | 29 | |
| 13 | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 18:21 | 29 | |
| 14 | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 22:24 | 27 | |
| 15 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 17:26 | 25 | |
| 16 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 17:29 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.