Los Angeles II vs St Louis City II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Los Angeles IIvs
St Louis City IIOur model leans St Louis City II (40% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours St Louis City II (0-0-6).
- +Recent form favours St Louis City II.
- −Los Angeles II have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours St Louis City II (0-0-6).
- Recent form favours St Louis City II.
- Los Angeles II have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Los Angeles II and St Louis City II. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 30% for Los Angeles II, 30% for the draw and 40% for St Louis City II.
Several signals point toward St Louis City II. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours St Louis City II (0-0-6). Recent form favours St Louis City II.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 Los Angeles II wins, 0 draws and 6 St Louis City II wins. Recent scorelines: 3-2, 2-1, 2-1, 4-3, 4-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Los Angeles II show L-L-L-L-L across their recent outings, while St Louis City II read L-W-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "St Louis City II" (1X2): we rate it 40% versus the 35% implied by odds of 2.69, an edge of 5.0 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Los Angeles II or St Louis City II?
Our model rates St Louis City II as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Los Angeles II vs St Louis City II?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Los Angeles II wins, 0 draws, 6 St Louis City II wins.
Odds movement
illustrative trendMatch statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Ault P. (20'), Kosakoff (45+2')). Score moves to 1–1.
Half-time score: Los Angeles II 1 – 1 St Louis City II.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.