Atletico Mineiro (Women) vs Ferroviaria SP (Women): Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (47% probability), medium confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Head-to-head record favours Ferroviaria SP (Women) (0-0-3).
- Recent form favours Atletico Mineiro (Women).
- Atletico Mineiro (Women) have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Atletico Mineiro (Women) and Ferroviaria SP (Women). After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 22% for Atletico Mineiro (Women), 47% for the draw and 31% for Ferroviaria SP (Women).
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 0 Atletico Mineiro (Women) wins, 0 draws and 3 Ferroviaria SP (Women) wins. Recent scorelines: 3-2, 2-4, 2-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Atletico Mineiro (Women) show W-L-D-L-D across their recent outings, while Ferroviaria SP (Women) read L-L-W-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Atletico Mineiro (Women)" (1X2): we rate it 22% versus the 20% implied by odds of 4.72 — an edge of 2.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atletico Mineiro (Women) or Ferroviaria SP (Women)?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atletico Mineiro (Women) vs Ferroviaria SP (Women)?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Atletico Mineiro (Women) wins, 0 draws, 3 Ferroviaria SP (Women) wins.
Odds movement
illustrative trendMatch statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedNo goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–0)
Half-time score: Atletico Mineiro (Women) 0 – 0 Ferroviaria SP (Women).
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–0)
League table
Brazil Championship. Women| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27:10 | 27 | |
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 27:12 | 25 | |
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16:8 | 23 | |
| 4 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19:13 | 22 | |
| 5 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22:16 | 21 | |
| 6 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23:14 | 21 | |
| 7 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13:10 | 20 | |
| 8 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16:10 | 19 | |
| 9 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 17:12 | 17 | |
| 10 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 19:20 | 17 | |
| 11 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 16 | |
| 12 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12:12 | 14 | |
| 13 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12:13 | 12 | |
| 14 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 7:12 | 9 | |
| 15 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7:20 | 7 | |
| 16 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 7:19 | 5 | |
| 17 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 7:28 | 3 | |
| 18 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 3:25 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.