Guarany Bage vs Cascavel: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Guarany Bagevs
CascavelOur model leans the draw (89% probability), high confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Guarany Bage.
- Guarany Bage have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between Guarany Bage and Cascavel. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 6% for Guarany Bage, 89% for the draw and 5% for Cascavel.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Guarany Bage wins, 0 draws and 1 Cascavel wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Guarany Bage show W-L-L-L-L across their recent outings, while Cascavel read L-L-D-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Guarany Bage" (1X2): we rate it 6% versus the 2% implied by odds of 54.00 — an edge of 4.1 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Guarany Bage or Cascavel?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 89% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Guarany Bage vs Cascavel?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Guarany Bage wins, 0 draws, 1 Cascavel wins.
Odds movement
illustrative trendMatch statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Cascavel make it count (Jose Carlos (27')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Half-time score: Guarany Bage 0 – 1 Cascavel.
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–1.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.