EC Sao Jose Porto Alegre vs Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
EC Sao Jose Porto Alegrevs
Clube Nautico Marcilio DiasOur model leans Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias (40% probability), low confidence.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Head-to-head record favours Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias (0-2-1).
- Recent form favours Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias.
- EC Sao Jose Porto Alegre have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and absentees to frame this clash between EC Sao Jose Porto Alegre and Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 38% for EC Sao Jose Porto Alegre, 23% for the draw and 40% for Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias.
Several signals point toward Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias. Head-to-head record favours Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias (0-2-1). Recent form favours Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 0 EC Sao Jose Porto Alegre wins, 2 draws and 1 Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1, 1-1, 0-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, EC Sao Jose Porto Alegre show D-L-D-D-W across their recent outings, while Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias read W-L-W-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias" (1X2): we rate it 40% versus the 35% implied by odds of 2.66 — an edge of 4.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly — but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, EC Sao Jose Porto Alegre or Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias?
Our model rates Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for EC Sao Jose Porto Alegre vs Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis — as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 EC Sao Jose Porto Alegre wins, 2 draws, 1 Clube Nautico Marcilio Dias wins.
Odds movement
illustrative trendMatch statistics
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.