Deportivo Pasto (Women) vs Atletico Nacional (Women): Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Pasto (Women)vs
Atletico Nacional (Women)Our model leans the draw (48% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Atletico Nacional (Women) (0-1-2).
- −Deportivo Pasto (Women) have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Atletico Nacional (Women) (0-1-2).
- Deportivo Pasto (Women) have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Match DNA
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Deportivo Pasto (Women) and Atletico Nacional (Women). After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 8% for Deportivo Pasto (Women), 48% for the draw and 44% for Atletico Nacional (Women).
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 0 Deportivo Pasto (Women) wins, 1 draws and 2 Atletico Nacional (Women) wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 1-1, 0-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Deportivo Pasto (Women) show L-W-L-D-W across their recent outings, while Atletico Nacional (Women) read L-W-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 48%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Atletico Nacional (Women)" (1X2): we rate it 44% versus the 41% implied by odds of 2.25, an edge of 2.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Pasto (Women) or Atletico Nacional (Women)?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Pasto (Women) vs Atletico Nacional (Women)?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Deportivo Pasto (Women) wins, 1 draws, 2 Atletico Nacional (Women) wins.
Odds movement
illustrative trendMatch statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Preciado (21'), Zambrano (45+3')). Score moves to 1–1.
Half-time score: Deportivo Pasto (Women) 1 – 1 Atletico Nacional (Women).
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 1–1.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
League table
Colombia Championship. Women| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Cali (Women) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 27:6 | 29 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional (Women) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 20:4 | 27 |
| 3 |  America de Cali (Women) | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17:6 | 26 |
| 4 |  Millonarios (Women) | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 25:6 | 25 |
| 5 |  Club Independiente Santa Fe (Women) | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 6 |  Internacional de Bogota (Women) | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 7 |  Internacional Palmira (Women) | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12:10 | 21 |
| 8 |  Independiente Medellin (Women) | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17:12 | 16 |
| 9 |  Llaneros (Women) | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 8:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  Orsomarso (Women) | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Junior (Women) | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10:16 | 10 |
| 12 |  Fortaleza Zipaquira (Women) | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 7:17 | 9 |
| 13 |  Atletico Bucaramanga (Women) | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 8:31 | 8 |
| 14 |  Once Caldas (Women) | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5:19 | 6 |
| 15 |  Real Santander (Women) | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3:19 | 6 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto (Women) | 11 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 7:19 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.