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Ecuador. Serie A

Delfin vs Barcelona Sporting Club: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Delfin DelfinvsBarcelona Sporting Club Barcelona Sporting Club
Our predictionBarcelona Sporting Club to win
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 0-1

Our model leans Barcelona Sporting Club (79% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

Win probabilities

1 · Delfin7%
Draw14%
2 · Barcelona Sporting Club79%
1 · DelfinDraw2 · Barcelona Sporting Club
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

O/U 2.5Over 2.54.28+14.5%
1X2Delfin13.90+0.5%
1X2Barcelona Sporting Club1.19+0.4%
1X2Draw6.25-0.9%
O/U 2.5Under 2.51.22-19.8%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

DelfinDWLWL
Barcelona Sporting ClubLWWLW
Team strength rating
Delfin
29
Barcelona Sporting Club
83

Expected goals

0.34Delfin
xG
1.87Barcelona Sporting Club
Over 2.5 goals38%
Both teams to score25%

Most likely scorelines

0-120.4%
0-219.1%
0-311.9%
0-010.9%
1-17.0%
1-26.6%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Delfin Barcelona Sporting Club

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Barcelona Sporting Club win1.19Fair
Total goalsUnder 2.51.22Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
01120191262
147742
211
3
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Delfin and Barcelona Sporting Club. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 7% for Delfin, 14% for the draw and 79% for Barcelona Sporting Club.

Several signals point toward Barcelona Sporting Club. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Barcelona Sporting Club (0-1-5).

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 Delfin wins, 1 draws and 5 Barcelona Sporting Club wins. Recent scorelines: 0-1, 2-0, 4-0, 1-3, 1-1.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 0-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Delfin show D-W-L-W-L across their recent outings, while Barcelona Sporting Club read L-W-W-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams to score at 25%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Over 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 38% versus the 23% implied by odds of 4.28, an edge of 14.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Delfin or Barcelona Sporting Club?

Our model rates Barcelona Sporting Club as the most likely outcome at 79% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Delfin vs Barcelona Sporting Club?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 0 Delfin wins, 1 draws, 5 Barcelona Sporting Club wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Referee: 62cd3ae6f75a663f699d892c
0.76
Expected goals (xG)
0.49
34
Possession
66
9
Total shots
15
3
Shots on target
4
3
Big Chances
0
1
Corners
6
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Offsides
7
52
Passes in final third
63
11
Fouls
7
Mendoza37'
Molinas🟨45+2'
46'Parrales M.
Ayunta46'
Ozaeta🟨65'
Valverde Arboleda67'
Morocho67'
71'Celiz
73'Villalba
73'Vallecilla G.
Zuniga76'
77'Carabali B.
80'Quinonez J.R.
86'Baez C.J.

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'10

Delfin make it count (Mendoza (37')). It's 1–0 at this point.

37'Mendoza45+2'🟨Molinas
Half-time

Half-time score: Delfin 1 – 0 Barcelona Sporting Club.

45–75'11

Barcelona Sporting Club make it count (Celiz (71')). It's 1–1 at this point.

46'Parrales M.46'Ayunta65'🟨Ozaeta67'Valverde Arboleda67'Morocho71'Celiz73'Villalba73'Vallecilla G.
75–90'+12

Barcelona Sporting Club make it count (Baez C.J. (86')). It's 1–2 at this point.

76'Zuniga77'Carabali B.80'Quinonez J.R.86'Baez C.J.
Full time: Delfin 12 Barcelona Sporting Club

League table

Ecuador. Serie A
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Independiente del Valle15113128:1634
2Universidad Catolica Quito1573526:1326
3Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito1575316:1324
4Deportivo Cuenca1575317:1724
5Barcelona Sporting Club1463516:1123
6Orense Sporting Club1565421:1922
7SD Aucas1464416:1522
8Club Social y Deportivo Macara1556414:1719
9Guayaquil City1556412:1519
10Emelec1556412:1619
11Tecnico Universitario1558216:1617
12Mushuc Runa1546519:2117
13Libertad Loja1546515:2017
14Leones Del Norte1547414:1716
15Delfin144647:1216
16Manta142934:159
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Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.