San Luis de Quillota vs Deportes Magallanes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans San Luis de Quillota (39% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Deportes Magallanes (0-0-6).
- +San Luis de Quillota have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Deportes Magallanes (0-0-6).
- San Luis de Quillota have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between San Luis de Quillota and Deportes Magallanes. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 39% for San Luis de Quillota, 24% for the draw and 37% for Deportes Magallanes.
Several signals point toward San Luis de Quillota. The odds point to a clear favourite. San Luis de Quillota have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 San Luis de Quillota wins, 0 draws and 6 Deportes Magallanes wins. Recent scorelines: 0-1, 1-0, 7-1, 0-1, 3-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, San Luis de Quillota show W-L-W-L-W across their recent outings, while Deportes Magallanes read W-L-L-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Deportes Magallanes" (1X2): we rate it 37% versus the 35% implied by odds of 2.70, an edge of 2.9 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Luis de Quillota or Deportes Magallanes?
Our model rates San Luis de Quillota as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Luis de Quillota vs Deportes Magallanes?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 San Luis de Quillota wins, 0 draws, 6 Deportes Magallanes wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedDeportes Magallanes make it count (Peraza (1')). It's 0–1 at this point.
San Luis de Quillota make it count (Parada (32')). It's 1–1 at this point.
Half-time score: San Luis de Quillota 1 – 1 Deportes Magallanes.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
League table
Chile. Primera B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 27:15 | 25 | |
| 2 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 27:16 | 25 | |
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 19:9 | 25 | |
| 4 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22:15 | 22 | |
| 5 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 16:14 | 22 | |
| 6 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 25:17 | 20 | |
| 7 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:12 | 20 | |
| 8 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23:23 | 20 | |
| 9 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19:19 | 18 | |
| 10 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21:20 | 16 | |
| 11 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 16:21 | 15 | |
| 12 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15:18 | 12 | |
| 13 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14:24 | 12 | |
| 14 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 10:25 | 12 | |
| 15 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 17:25 | 8 | |
| 16 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 11:25 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.