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Chile. Primera B

San Luis de Quillota vs Deportes Magallanes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

San Luis de Quillota San Luis de QuillotavsDeportes Magallanes Deportes Magallanes
Our predictionSan Luis de Quillota to win
Confidence: Low · 27/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans San Luis de Quillota (39% probability), low confidence.

Why this prediction

Win probabilities

1 · San Luis de Quillota39%
Draw24%
2 · Deportes Magallanes37%
1 · San Luis de QuillotaDraw2 · Deportes Magallanes
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Deportes Magallanes2.70+2.9%
1X2Draw3.71-1.5%
1X2San Luis de Quillota2.32-1.5%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

San Luis de QuillotaWLWLW
Deportes MagallanesWLLWL
Team strength rating
San Luis de Quillota
52
Deportes Magallanes
64

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%
1-010.3%
0-19.0%
2-18.6%
1-27.6%
0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.38San Luis de Quillota
xG
1.22Deportes Magallanes
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
San Luis de Quillota Deportes Magallanes

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2San Luis de Quillota win2.32Fair (-1.5%)
Double chanceSan Luis de Quillota or drawInfo

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07962
1101283
27952
3342
411
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between San Luis de Quillota and Deportes Magallanes. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 39% for San Luis de Quillota, 24% for the draw and 37% for Deportes Magallanes.

Several signals point toward San Luis de Quillota. The odds point to a clear favourite. San Luis de Quillota have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 San Luis de Quillota wins, 0 draws and 6 Deportes Magallanes wins. Recent scorelines: 0-1, 1-0, 7-1, 0-1, 3-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, San Luis de Quillota show W-L-W-L-W across their recent outings, while Deportes Magallanes read W-L-L-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Deportes Magallanes" (1X2): we rate it 37% versus the 35% implied by odds of 2.70, an edge of 2.9 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, San Luis de Quillota or Deportes Magallanes?

Our model rates San Luis de Quillota as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for San Luis de Quillota vs Deportes Magallanes?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 0 San Luis de Quillota wins, 0 draws, 6 Deportes Magallanes wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

48
Possession
52
9
Total shots
4
5
Shots on target
3
6
Corners
6
0
Yellow cards
2
1'Peraza
23'🟨Yanez
Parada32'
36'🟨Peraza
46'Osorio
Gonzalez46'

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'01

Deportes Magallanes make it count (Peraza (1')). It's 0–1 at this point.

1'Peraza
15–45'11

San Luis de Quillota make it count (Parada (32')). It's 1–1 at this point.

23'🟨Yanez32'Parada36'🟨Peraza
Half-time

Half-time score: San Luis de Quillota 1 – 1 Deportes Magallanes.

45–75'11

The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–1)

46'Osorio46'Gonzalez
75–90'+11

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)

Full time: San Luis de Quillota 11 Deportes Magallanes

League table

Chile. Primera B
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Santiago Wanderers1372427:1525
2Cobreloa1372427:1625
3San Marcos de Arica1360719:925
4Deportes Antofagasta1363422:1522
5Deportes Puerto Montt1375116:1422
6Deportes Temuco1353525:1720
7Union Espanola1264216:1220
8Deportes Recoleta1365223:2320
9Deportes Magallanes1254319:1918
10San Luis de Quillota1244421:2016
11Deportes Copiapo1245316:2115
12Deportes Iquique1325615:1812
13Curico Unido1325614:2412
14Union San Felipe1337310:2512
15Club de Deportes Santa Cruz1317517:258
16CSD Rangers13010311:253
Promotion - Chile. Primera Division Promotion - Chile. Primera Division (Promotion - Play-off: Round of 4) Promotion - Chile. Primera Division (Promotion - Play-off: Round of 8) Relegation - Segunda

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.