Miramar Misiones vs Centro Atletico Fenix: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Miramar Misionesvs
Centro Atletico FenixOur model leans Centro Atletico Fenix (62% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Centro Atletico Fenix (0-3-3).
- +Recent form favours Centro Atletico Fenix.
- −Miramar Misiones have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Centro Atletico Fenix (0-3-3).
- Recent form favours Centro Atletico Fenix.
- Miramar Misiones have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: a tight, low-scoring game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Miramar Misiones and Centro Atletico Fenix. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 17% for Miramar Misiones, 21% for the draw and 62% for Centro Atletico Fenix.
Several signals point toward Centro Atletico Fenix. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Centro Atletico Fenix (0-3-3). Recent form favours Centro Atletico Fenix.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 Miramar Misiones wins, 3 draws and 3 Centro Atletico Fenix wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-0, 0-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 0-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Miramar Misiones show L-D-D-D-L across their recent outings, while Centro Atletico Fenix read W-W-L-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 39%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Centro Atletico Fenix" (1X2): we rate it 62% versus the 59% implied by odds of 1.58, an edge of 3.0 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Miramar Misiones or Centro Atletico Fenix?
Our model rates Centro Atletico Fenix as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Miramar Misiones vs Centro Atletico Fenix?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Miramar Misiones wins, 3 draws, 3 Centro Atletico Fenix wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Miramar Misiones make it count (Felipe (41')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Miramar Misiones 1 – 0 Centro Atletico Fenix.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–0)
Centro Atletico Fenix make it count (Unknown (76')). It's 1–1 at this point.
League table
Uruguay. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tacuarembo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 2 |  River Plate Montevideo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Club Plaza Colonia de Deportes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Club Atletico Atenas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 5 |  Cerrito | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:4 | 5 |
| 6 |  La Luz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:0 | 5 |
| 7 |  Rentistas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 8 |  Huracan Del Paso De La Arena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 9 | Centro Atletico Fenix | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Club Oriental | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:5 | 2 |
| 11 | Miramar Misiones | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  FC Paysandu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4:6 | 1 |
| 13 |  Uruguay Montevideo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 14 |  Colon Montevideo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.