Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Deportes Copiapo (56% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Union Espanola (1-0-3).
- −Recent form favours Union Espanola.
- +Deportes Copiapo have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Union Espanola (1-0-3).
- Recent form favours Union Espanola.
- Deportes Copiapo have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 56% for Deportes Copiapo, 15% for the draw and 30% for Union Espanola.
Several signals point toward Deportes Copiapo. The odds point to a clear favourite. Deportes Copiapo have home advantage.
Across the last 4 meetings, the record reads 1 Deportes Copiapo wins, 0 draws and 3 Union Espanola wins. Recent scorelines: 2-3, 5-3, 4-3, 3-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Deportes Copiapo show L-W-W-L-L across their recent outings, while Union Espanola read W-W-W-W-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 54%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Union Espanola" (1X2): we rate it 30% versus the 23% implied by odds of 4.05, an edge of 6.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportes Copiapo or Union Espanola?
Our model rates Deportes Copiapo as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 Deportes Copiapo wins, 0 draws, 3 Union Espanola wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedDeportes Copiapo make it count (Espoz (4')). It's 1–0 at this point.
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 1–0.
Half-time score: Deportes Copiapo 1 – 0 Union Espanola.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–0)
League table
Chile. Primera B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 27:15 | 25 | |
| 2 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 27:16 | 25 | |
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 19:9 | 25 | |
| 4 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22:15 | 22 | |
| 5 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 16:14 | 22 | |
| 6 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 25:17 | 20 | |
| 7 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:12 | 20 | |
| 8 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23:23 | 20 | |
| 9 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 23:21 | 19 | |
| 10 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 20:21 | 18 | |
| 11 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 16:21 | 15 | |
| 12 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15:18 | 12 | |
| 13 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14:24 | 12 | |
| 14 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 10:25 | 12 | |
| 15 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 17:25 | 8 | |
| 16 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 11:25 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.