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Gambian Championship. 1st Division

Bombada vs Gambia Ports Authority: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Bombada BombadavsGambia Ports Authority Gambia Ports Authority
Our predictionBombada to win
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans Bombada (69% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

Win probabilities

1 · Bombada69%
Draw11%
2 · Gambia Ports Authority20%
1 · BombadaDraw2 · Gambia Ports Authority
Full team comparison

Recent form

BombadaLLDDD
Gambia Ports AuthorityLLLLW
Team strength rating
Bombada
61
Gambia Ports Authority
32

Most likely scorelines

2-014.3%
1-014.1%
3-09.6%
2-19.1%
1-19.0%
0-07.0%

Expected goals

2.02Bombada
xG
0.64Gambia Ports Authority
Over 2.5 goals49%
Both teams to score41%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Bombada Gambia Ports Authority

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Bombada win1.33Fair (-1.0%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
0741
11493
21493
31062
453
521

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Draw9.71+1.5%
1X2Gambia Ports Authority4.43-0.5%
1X2Bombada1.33-1.0%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Bombada and Gambia Ports Authority. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 69% for Bombada, 11% for the draw and 20% for Gambia Ports Authority.

Several signals point toward Bombada. The odds point to a clear favourite. Bombada have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Bombada wins, 1 draws and 3 Gambia Ports Authority wins. Recent scorelines: 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-3, 0-1.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Bombada show L-L-D-D-D across their recent outings, while Gambia Ports Authority read L-L-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 41%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Bombada or Gambia Ports Authority?

Our model rates Bombada as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Bombada vs Gambia Ports Authority?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 2 Bombada wins, 1 draws, 3 Gambia Ports Authority wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Gambian Championship. 1st Division
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Medina United25128529:2441
2Gambia Ports Authority251051021:1540
3Bombada25951131:2538
4Brikama United25107828:2438
5Fortune Farato25951123:1938
6Real de Banjul25751323:1934
7Hart Academy2588931:2933
8Team Rhino2589822:2132
9BST Galaxy25771122:2432
10Falcons25661315:1731
11Gambian Dutch Lions25671223:2230
12Greater Tomorrow2579921:2730
13Banjul Hawks25710822:2629
14Steve Biko25591119:2226
15Samger255101017:2225
16TMT254101112:2323
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification) League (Play Out - Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.