Bombada vs Gambia Ports Authority: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Bombada (69% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Bombada have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Bombada have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Bombada and Gambia Ports Authority. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 69% for Bombada, 11% for the draw and 20% for Gambia Ports Authority.
Several signals point toward Bombada. The odds point to a clear favourite. Bombada have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Bombada wins, 1 draws and 3 Gambia Ports Authority wins. Recent scorelines: 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-3, 0-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Bombada show L-L-D-D-D across their recent outings, while Gambia Ports Authority read L-L-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 41%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bombada or Gambia Ports Authority?
Our model rates Bombada as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bombada vs Gambia Ports Authority?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Bombada wins, 1 draws, 3 Gambia Ports Authority wins.
League table
Gambian Championship. 1st Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 29:24 | 41 | |
| 2 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 21:15 | 40 | |
| 3 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 31:25 | 38 | |
| 4 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 28:24 | 38 | |
| 5 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 23:19 | 38 | |
| 6 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 23:19 | 34 | |
| 7 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 31:29 | 33 | |
| 8 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 22:21 | 32 | |
| 9 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 22:24 | 32 | |
| 10 | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 15:17 | 31 | |
| 11 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 23:22 | 30 | |
| 12 | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 21:27 | 30 | |
| 13 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 22:26 | 29 | |
| 14 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 19:22 | 26 | |
| 15 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 17:22 | 25 | |
| 16 | 25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12:23 | 23 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.