Luxembourg vs Italy: Team Comparison
LuxembourgvsItaly 
Comparing Luxembourg and Italy across the metrics that matter, the model leans toward Italy — a 33% win probability once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The draw sits at 55%. Below, the head-to-head numbers show where that edge comes from.
The detail backs this up: Italy project for more goals (1.48 xG), Luxembourg have the better head-to-head record. Read together, these are the factors separating the two sides — not a single number but the weight of several pointing the same way.
| Luxembourg | Metric | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Strength rating | 43 |
| 13% | Win probability | 33% |
| L W L W L | Recent form | L L W W L |
| 0 | Head-to-head wins | 0 |
| 1.09 | Expected goals | 1.48 |
Comparison based on odds, recent form and head-to-head data. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.
Who is more likely to win, Luxembourg or Italy?
The model favours Italy at 33%, with the draw at 55%.