Belgium vs Iran: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Belgiumvs
IranOur model leans Belgium (68% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Belgium have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Belgium have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: a tight, low-scoring game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds and recent form to frame this clash between Belgium and Iran. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 68% for Belgium, 12% for the draw and 20% for Iran.
Several signals point toward Belgium. The odds point to a clear favourite. Belgium have home advantage.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-0 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Belgium show W-L-L across their recent outings, while Iran read limited data. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams to score at 36%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Belgium or Iran?
Our model rates Belgium as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Belgium vs Iran?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.