Norway vs Senegal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Norwayvs
SenegalOur model leans Norway (47% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours Norway.
- +Norway have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Norway.
- Norway have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Norway and Senegal. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 47% for Norway, 27% for the draw and 26% for Senegal.
Several signals point toward Norway. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Norway. Norway have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Norway wins, 0 draws and 1 Senegal wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Norway show D-L-D-L-W across their recent outings, while Senegal read L-L-L-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Norway" (1X2): we rate it 47% versus the 44% implied by odds of 2.15, an edge of 2.3 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Norway or Senegal?
Our model rates Norway as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Norway vs Senegal?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Norway wins, 0 draws, 1 Senegal wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.