Belgium vs Tunisia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Belgiumvs
TunisiaOur model leans Belgium (75% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Belgium (2-1-0).
- +Recent form favours Belgium.
- +Belgium have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Belgium (2-1-0).
- Recent form favours Belgium.
- Belgium have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Belgium and Tunisia. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 75% for Belgium, 8% for the draw and 16% for Tunisia.
Several signals point toward Belgium. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Belgium (2-1-0). Recent form favours Belgium.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 2 Belgium wins, 1 draws and 0 Tunisia wins. Recent scorelines: 5-2, 1-0, 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Belgium show W-D-W-W-D across their recent outings, while Tunisia read L-D-W-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 35%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Belgium" (1X2): we rate it 75% versus the 73% implied by odds of 1.30, an edge of 2.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Belgium or Tunisia?
Our model rates Belgium as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Belgium vs Tunisia?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Belgium wins, 1 draws, 0 Tunisia wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.