Denmark vs Ukraine: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Denmarkvs
UkraineOur model leans Denmark (55% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Ukraine.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Denmark have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Ukraine.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Denmark have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Denmark and Ukraine. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 55% for Denmark, 18% for the draw and 28% for Ukraine.
Several signals point toward Denmark. The odds point to a clear favourite. Denmark have home advantage.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 1 Denmark wins, 1 draws and 1 Ukraine wins. Recent scorelines: 1-0, 1-1, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Denmark show L-L-L-D-L across their recent outings, while Ukraine read W-L-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 49%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Ukraine" (1X2): we rate it 28% versus the 25% implied by odds of 3.76, an edge of 2.4 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Denmark or Ukraine?
Our model rates Denmark as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Denmark vs Ukraine?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Denmark wins, 1 draws, 1 Ukraine wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.