Flamengo vs Coritiba: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and season stats to frame this clash between Flamengo and Coritiba. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 70% for Flamengo, 12% for the draw and 18% for Coritiba.

Several signals point toward Flamengo. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Flamengo (5-0-1). Flamengo creates more chances (17 vs 10 shots per game).

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 5 Flamengo wins, 0 draws and 1 Coritiba wins. Recent scorelines: 2-3, 3-0, 1-0, 2-0, 2-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Flamengo show L-W-L-D-L across their recent outings, while Coritiba read L-W-W-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

The season numbers frame the tie. At home, Flamengo run at 2.0 goals per game, 17 shots, 55% possession across 7 matches. On the road, Coritiba post 2.0 goals per game, 10 shots, 38% possession over 9 outings. It's these measured gaps, not a hunch, that steer the call.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 51%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Flamengo" (1X2): we rate it 70% versus the 66% implied by odds of 1.44, an edge of 3.9 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.