Bahia vs Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and season stats to frame this clash between Bahia and Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 53% for Bahia, 21% for the draw and 26% for Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas.

Several signals point toward Bahia. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Bahia (3-2-1). Bahia creates more chances (15 vs 11 shots per game).

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Bahia wins, 2 draws and 1 Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-1.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Bahia show L-D-L-W-D across their recent outings, while Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas read W-D-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

The season numbers frame the tie. At home, Bahia run at 2.0 goals per game, 15 shots, 55% possession across 8 matches. On the road, Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas post 2.0 goals per game, 11 shots, 49% possession over 9 outings. It's these measured gaps, not a hunch, that steer the call.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 65%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Bahia" (1X2): we rate it 53% versus the 49% implied by odds of 1.93, an edge of 3.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.