Clube Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Clube Atletico Paranaensevs
MirassolOur model leans Clube Atletico Paranaense (56% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Clube Atletico Paranaense score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Clube Atletico Paranaense is tighter at the back (8 shots conceded per game).
- +Clube Atletico Paranaense creates more chances (14 vs 11 shots per game).
- +Clube Atletico Paranaense have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Clube Atletico Paranaense score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- Clube Atletico Paranaense is tighter at the back (8 shots conceded per game).
- Clube Atletico Paranaense creates more chances (14 vs 11 shots per game).
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds and season stats to frame this clash between Clube Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 56% for Clube Atletico Paranaense, 19% for the draw and 25% for Mirassol.
Several signals point toward Clube Atletico Paranaense. The odds point to a clear favourite. Clube Atletico Paranaense score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away). Clube Atletico Paranaense is tighter at the back (8 shots conceded per game).
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
The season numbers frame the tie. At home, Clube Atletico Paranaense run at 2.0 goals per game, 14 shots, 51% possession across 9 matches. On the road, Mirassol post 1.0 goals per game, 11 shots, 53% possession over 7 outings. It's these measured gaps, not a hunch, that steer the call.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 52%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Clube Atletico Paranaense" (1X2): we rate it 56% versus the 52% implied by odds of 1.82, an edge of 4.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Clube Atletico Paranaense or Mirassol?
Our model rates Clube Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Clube Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 29:13 | 38 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28:16 | 31 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 27:22 | 30 |
| 4 | Clube Atletico Paranaense | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 23:18 | 27 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 22:18 | 26 |
| 6 |  Coritiba | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 24:21 | 26 |
| 7 |  Sao Paulo | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 23:19 | 25 |
| 8 |  Bahia | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23:22 | 23 |
| 9 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 23:27 | 23 |
| 10 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 30:29 | 22 |
| 11 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 20:22 | 22 |
| 12 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 21:23 | 21 |
| 13 |  Sport Club Internacional | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:19 | 21 |
| 14 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 15 |  Corinthians Paulista | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 15:18 | 21 |
| 16 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 22:28 | 20 |
| 17 |  Santos | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 23:28 | 18 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 18:23 | 16 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 20:29 | 15 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 16 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 17:32 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.