Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras vs Chapecoense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and season stats to frame this clash between Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras and Chapecoense. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 80% for Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras, 6% for the draw and 13% for Chapecoense.

Several signals point toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras (5-1-0). Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 5 Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras wins, 1 draws and 0 Chapecoense wins. Recent scorelines: 0-2, 3-1, 1-0, 1-2, 1-2.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras show L-W-W-D-W across their recent outings, while Chapecoense read D-L-W-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

The season numbers frame the tie. At home, Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras run at 2.0 goals per game, 16 shots, 50% possession across 8 matches. On the road, Chapecoense post 1.0 goals per game, 9 shots, 39% possession over 6 outings. It's these measured gaps, not a hunch, that steer the call.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 33%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras" (1X2): we rate it 80% versus the 77% implied by odds of 1.23, an edge of 3.3 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.