Santos vs EC Vitoria Salvador: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history, recent form and season stats to frame this clash between Santos and EC Vitoria Salvador. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 56% for Santos, 17% for the draw and 26% for EC Vitoria Salvador.

Several signals point toward Santos. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Santos (4-1-1). Santos is tighter at the back (11 shots conceded per game).

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 4 Santos wins, 1 draws and 1 EC Vitoria Salvador wins. Recent scorelines: 0-1, 0-1, 0-1, 5-2, 2-2.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-0 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Santos show W-L-D-L-W across their recent outings, while EC Vitoria Salvador read W-W-W-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

The season numbers frame the tie. At home, Santos run at 1.0 goals per game, 11 shots, 51% possession across 9 matches. On the road, EC Vitoria Salvador post 1.0 goals per game, 8 shots, 44% possession over 8 outings. It's these measured gaps, not a hunch, that steer the call.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 37% and both teams to score at 39%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Santos" (1X2): we rate it 56% versus the 53% implied by odds of 1.79, an edge of 3.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.