Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pumas UNAMvs
Cruz AzulOur model leans Cruz Azul (52% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Cruz Azul (1-2-3).
- +Recent form favours Cruz Azul.
- +Pumas UNAM are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Pumas UNAM have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Cruz Azul (1-2-3).
- Recent form favours Cruz Azul.
- Pumas UNAM are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 16% for Pumas UNAM, 32% for the draw and 52% for Cruz Azul.
Several signals point toward Cruz Azul. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Cruz Azul (1-2-3). Recent form favours Cruz Azul.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Pumas UNAM wins, 2 draws and 3 Cruz Azul wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 2-2, 2-3, 2-0, 3-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Pumas UNAM show D-L-L-D-D across their recent outings, while Cruz Azul read D-W-D-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Cruz Azul" (1X2): we rate it 52% versus the 48% implied by odds of 1.96, an edge of 4.1 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pumas UNAM or Cruz Azul?
Our model rates Cruz Azul as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Pumas UNAM wins, 2 draws, 3 Cruz Azul wins.
Match statistics
Referee: 688e93499930a40b3c795abfMatch story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Pumas UNAM make it count (Morales (31')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Pumas UNAM 1 – 0 Cruz Azul.
Cruz Azul make it count (Duarte Ru. (54')). It's 1–1 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.