Chapecoense vs Novorizontino: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chapecoensevs
NovorizontinoOur model leans Novorizontino (61% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours Novorizontino.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Chapecoense have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Novorizontino.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Chapecoense have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Chapecoense and Novorizontino. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 25% for Chapecoense, 13% for the draw and 61% for Novorizontino.
Several signals point toward Novorizontino. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Novorizontino.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Chapecoense wins, 0 draws and 3 Novorizontino wins. Recent scorelines: 0-2, 1-0, 1-0, 0-2, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Chapecoense show L-L-W-L-D across their recent outings, while Novorizontino read L-W-D-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chapecoense or Novorizontino?
Our model rates Novorizontino as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chapecoense vs Novorizontino?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Chapecoense wins, 0 draws, 3 Novorizontino wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Queiroz (39'), Cordeiro Pessoa Neto (41')). Score moves to 1–1.
Half-time score: Chapecoense 1 – 1 Novorizontino.
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (dos Santos Cavalheira Natividade (57'), Queiroz (70')). Score moves to 2–2.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (2–2)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.