Urartu vs Noah Yerevan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Urartuvs
Noah YerevanThe model strongly favours a draw at 85% probability, supported by bookmaker odds (1.03) and balanced head-to-head history. A 2-2 scoreline aligns with the high-goals lean, though Noah Yerevan's superior recent form and favourable odds present counter-narrative risk.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Noah Yerevan.
- +The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Urartu have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Draw probability of 85% significantly exceeds home win (4%) and away win (11%)
- Bookmaker odds heavily back the draw at 1.03, implying 88.6% probability
- Head-to-head record shows 3 draws in 6 meetings with closely balanced results
- Noah Yerevan's recent form (4 wins in last 5) contrasts with Urartu's mixed record (2 wins, 2 losses in last 5)
- Over 2.5 goals at 1.23 odds suggests attacking potential; recent h2h includes 3-3 and 2-4 scorelines
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The analytical consensus points decisively toward a draw. Bookmaker odds at 1.03 and the model's 85% confidence create a compelling case, while head-to-head history reinforces this view with three draws in six meetings. The recent scoreline pattern—including 3-3 and back-to-back 0-0 results—demonstrates this fixture's tendency toward stalemate.
However, Noah Yerevan's form deserves careful consideration. Four wins in their last five matches represent genuine momentum, and the away team's record contrasts sharply with Urartu's inconsistent home form (two wins, two losses in five). The 11% away-win probability may undervalue this advantage, though it remains a secondary scenario.
The goals picture leans toward higher-scoring affairs. Over 2.5 goals trades at 1.23, suggesting market belief in an attacking contest. The 2-2 scoreHint and recent h2h including 3-3, 2-4, and 2-1 results support this. A draw could feasibly come with substantial scoring rather than a 0-0 stalemate.
From a value perspective, draw odds of 1.03 offer minimal return for the 85% probability—typical of extremely short prices. Bettors should weigh the low payout against the high certainty. The away-win option at 11.5 represents superior value relative to its 11% modelled probability, though this remains a secondary consideration.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Urartu or Noah Yerevan?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 85% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Urartu vs Noah Yerevan?
A scoreline around 2-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Urartu wins, 3 draws, 2 Noah Yerevan wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedNoah Yerevan make it count (Manvelyan (2'), Santini (5')). It's 0–2 at this point.
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–2)
Half-time score: Urartu 0 – 2 Noah Yerevan.
Noah Yerevan make it count (Unknown (59')). It's 0–3 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–3)
League table
Armenia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ararat - Armenia | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 49:25 | 57 |
| 2 |  Alashkert | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 42:23 | 53 |
| 3 | Noah Yerevan | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 56:19 | 53 |
| 4 |  Pyunik | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 35:17 | 52 |
| 5 | Urartu | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 43:21 | 49 |
| 6 |  Van | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 26:38 | 31 |
| 7 |  CSKA Yerevan | 27 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 30:42 | 23 |
| 8 |  Gandzasar | 26 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 20:40 | 21 |
| 9 |  Ararat Yerevan | 27 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 21:63 | 13 |
| 10 |  Shirak | 27 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 17:51 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.