Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Valerenga (62% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Valerenga (4-0-2).
- −Valerenga are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Kristiansund BK are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Valerenga have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Valerenga (4-0-2).
- Valerenga are dealing with notable absentees.
- Kristiansund BK are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Valerenga and Kristiansund BK. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 62% for Valerenga, 17% for the draw and 21% for Kristiansund BK.
Several signals point toward Valerenga. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Valerenga (4-0-2). Kristiansund BK are dealing with notable absentees.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 4 Valerenga wins, 0 draws and 2 Kristiansund BK wins. Recent scorelines: 3-0, 0-2, 0-3, 0-2, 0-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Valerenga show L-W-L-D-L across their recent outings, while Kristiansund BK read L-W-L-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 44%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Valerenga or Kristiansund BK?
Our model rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Valerenga wins, 0 draws, 2 Kristiansund BK wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29:10 | 27 | |
| 2 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 18:14 | 24 | |
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 26:9 | 22 | |
| 4 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17:11 | 19 | |
| 5 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16:12 | 16 | |
| 6 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | 16 | |
| 7 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9:11 | 14 | |
| 8 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 23:18 | 13 | |
| 9 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11:15 | 11 | |
| 10 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12:17 | 11 | |
| 11 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:15 | 11 | |
| 12 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13:19 | 11 | |
| 13 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 11 | |
| 14 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:18 | 10 | |
| 15 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:16 | 8 | |
| 16 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12:26 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.