Aalesunds vs HamKam: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aalesundsvs
HamKamOur model leans Aalesunds (46% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Aalesunds are dealing with notable absentees.
- +HamKam are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Aalesunds have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Aalesunds are dealing with notable absentees.
- HamKam are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Aalesunds and HamKam. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 46% for Aalesunds, 29% for the draw and 25% for HamKam.
Several signals point toward Aalesunds. The odds point to a clear favourite. HamKam are dealing with notable absentees. Aalesunds have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Aalesunds wins, 2 draws and 2 HamKam wins. Recent scorelines: 3-2, 0-2, 2-1, 3-1, 0-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Aalesunds show D-W-W-L-D across their recent outings, while HamKam read W-L-W-D-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aalesunds or HamKam?
Our model rates Aalesunds as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aalesunds vs HamKam?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Aalesunds wins, 2 draws, 2 HamKam wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29:10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Tromso | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 18:14 | 24 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 26:9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17:11 | 19 |
| 5 |  Molde | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16:12 | 16 |
| 6 | HamKam | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | 16 |
| 7 |  Sandefjord | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9:11 | 14 |
| 8 |  Brann | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 23:18 | 13 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11:15 | 11 |
| 10 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12:17 | 11 |
| 11 |  Kristiansund BK | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:15 | 11 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13:19 | 11 |
| 13 |  Valerenga | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 11 |
| 14 | Aalesunds | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:18 | 10 |
| 15 |  Rosenborg | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12:26 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.