Orgryte vs Elfsborg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Orgrytevs
ElfsborgOur model leans the draw (46% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Elfsborg (1-0-5).
- −Recent form favours Elfsborg.
- −Orgryte have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Elfsborg (1-0-5).
- Recent form favours Elfsborg.
- Orgryte have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Orgryte and Elfsborg. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 23% for Orgryte, 46% for the draw and 31% for Elfsborg.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Orgryte wins, 0 draws and 5 Elfsborg wins. Recent scorelines: 3-1, 3-2, 2-0, 1-0, 0-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Orgryte show L-W-L-L-D across their recent outings, while Elfsborg read D-D-D-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Elfsborg" (1X2): we rate it 31% versus the 25% implied by odds of 3.68, an edge of 5.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Orgryte or Elfsborg?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Orgryte vs Elfsborg?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Orgryte wins, 0 draws, 5 Elfsborg wins.
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24:10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22:10 | 17 |
| 3 |  Hacken | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17:12 | 17 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:9 | 17 |
| 5 |  Mjallby | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:11 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brommapojkarna | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | 14 |
| 7 |  Djurgardens | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19:13 | 13 |
| 8 |  GAIS | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:11 | 12 |
| 9 |  AIK | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Vasteras SK | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:17 | 12 |
| 11 |  Kalmar | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 12 |  Malmo | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 15:18 | 10 |
| 13 |  Degerfors | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10:14 | 9 |
| 14 |  Goteborg | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8:18 | 7 |
| 15 |  Halmstads | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7:15 | 6 |
| 16 | Orgryte | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 8:23 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.