Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur vs Valur: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkurvs
ValurKnattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur edges this as a modest favorite at 42% to win, but the matchup presents genuine uncertainty with Valur at 34% and a draw at 25%. The model's 0.39 confidence score reflects mixed signals that make this a relatively open contest.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur (4-1-1).
- −Recent form favours Valur.
- +Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Head-to-head record strongly favors KR with 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss across six meetings
- Home advantage for Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur offsets Valur's superior recent form
- KR's recent home form is shaky (2 losses, 1 draw, 1 win in last 5), while Valur's away record shows 3 wins in last 5 games
- Historical matchups show high volatility, with scorelines ranging from 0-2 to 6-1
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The betting model identifies Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur as the mathematical favorite at 42%, primarily anchored by a commanding head-to-head record of 4-1-1. However, a confidence level of only 0.39 signals that supporting evidence is mixed and conviction should be tempered. This is not a strong lean but rather a marginal edge.
Recent form creates a genuine counterpoint: Valur's current trajectory is superior to KR's. Valur has won 3 of their last 5 away matches, demonstrating away-day competence. Conversely, Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur's home form shows only 1 win in their last 5 matches at home, with 2 losses and a draw. This tension between historical advantage and current momentum defines the match.
Home advantage still carries weight in the Icelandic Úrvalsdeild and tips the scales toward KR, but the gap between home (42%) and away (34%) probabilities is narrow—less than 8 percentage points. The 25% draw probability reflects that stalemates are a realistic outcome in this fixture, particularly given KR's recent tendency to draw at home.
Historical scorelines between these teams reveal high volatility, ranging from 0-2 to 6-1, suggesting that while KR has been more frequently successful, matches are prone to variable outcomes. Bettors should view this as a genuine coinflip with a slight home bias rather than a confident prediction.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur or Valur?
Our model rates Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur wins, 1 draws, 1 Valur wins.
Match statistics
Referee: 6519803994fca712b443f8f4Match story
How the game unfoldedKnattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur make it count (Traustason (8'), Ray (9')). It's 2–0 at this point.
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (2–0)
Half-time score: Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur 2 – 0 Valur.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (2–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (2–0)
League table
Iceland. Urvalsdeild| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vikingur Reykjavik | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26:4 | 22 |
| 2 | Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 30:19 | 19 |
| 3 |  Knattspyrnufelagid Fram | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 21:13 | 17 |
| 4 |  Breidablik UBK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19:11 | 15 |
| 5 | Valur | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Keflavík | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:12 | 11 |
| 7 |  Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9:10 | 10 |
| 8 |  IA Akranes | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 9 |  Stjarnan | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:18 | 7 |
| 10 |  Tor Akureyri | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6:20 | 6 |
| 11 |  Hafnarfjordur | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 12:25 | 2 |
| 12 |  Íþrottabandalag Vestmannaeyja | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8:22 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.