KTP Kotka vs SJK Akatemia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
KTP Kotkavs
SJK AkatemiaOur model leans KTP Kotka (71% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours KTP Kotka (4-2-0).
- +KTP Kotka have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours KTP Kotka (4-2-0).
- KTP Kotka have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between KTP Kotka and SJK Akatemia. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 71% for KTP Kotka, 12% for the draw and 17% for SJK Akatemia.
Several signals point toward KTP Kotka. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours KTP Kotka (4-2-0). KTP Kotka have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 4 KTP Kotka wins, 2 draws and 0 SJK Akatemia wins. Recent scorelines: 1-2, 3-3, 0-3, 5-1, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, KTP Kotka show W-W-L-L-W across their recent outings, while SJK Akatemia read W-W-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 38%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, KTP Kotka or SJK Akatemia?
Our model rates KTP Kotka as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for KTP Kotka vs SJK Akatemia?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 KTP Kotka wins, 2 draws, 0 SJK Akatemia wins.
League table
Finland. Ykkosliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PK-35 Helsinki | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10:5 | 17 |
| 2 | KTP Kotka | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  JIPPO | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9:4 | 15 |
| 4 |  JaPS | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7:8 | 13 |
| 5 |  Haka | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13:7 | 12 |
| 6 |  Ekenas | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17:16 | 12 |
| 7 |  KaPa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | 9 |
| 8 |  Mikkelin Palloilijat | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 9 | SJK Akatemia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4:11 | 5 |
| 10 |  Klubi-04 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 5:11 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.