Ismaily vs Pharco: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ismailyvs
PharcoPharco edges this matchup as a marginal away pick with 39% win probability, though this remains a tightly contested affair with a draw at 31% and confidence levels modest at 0.53. The model leans toward a 1-2 scoreline, reflecting Pharco's slight edge despite Ismaily's home advantage.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Pharco (1-2-3).
- +Recent form favours Pharco.
- −Ismaily have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pharco favored by bookmakers and hold a 3-2 head-to-head edge (1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses for Ismaily)
- Recent form tilts away: Pharco shows W-L-W-D-D vs Ismaily's L-D-L-D-D
- Narrow margins: away win at 39%, draw at 31%, home win at 30%—no outcome commands strong conviction
- Implied odds (34% away vs 39% model away) suggest slight model edge on value
- Score hint of 1-2 aligns with Pharco's narrow advantage and Ismaily's defensive struggles at home
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The data presents a close encounter where Pharco hold material but limited advantages. Bookmakers price the away side at 39% implied probability for a win, fractionally below our 39% model assessment. The historical record (3 wins in 6 meetings) and recent form (two wins in last five games versus Ismaily's winless streak) both favor the visitors, though margins remain tight in a league context where home advantage traditionally matters.
Ismaily's home record raises concerns: L-D-L-D-D shows just one point in the last three home outings. Pharco's form is mixed but contains two wins in five games, suggesting relative stability. The 1-2 scoreline hint reflects a scenario where Ismaily concedes first but cannot equalize—consistent with their current trajectory.
Crucially, the draw represents a live possibility at 31% probability, near-matched to the away win. With odds of 2.68 on the draw and 2.65 on the away win, neither outcome offers compelling value by model standards. The 0.53 confidence floor signals analytical caution: this is a coin-flip fixture with a slight lean, not a high-conviction play.
Bettors should recognize that backing Pharco at 2.65 reflects the market's view closely; positive expected value likely exists only at modest margins. The head-to-head imbalance and form edge justify a pick, but stake sizing should reflect the low confidence threshold. Responsible approach: treat this as a lean, not a strong conviction.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ismaily or Pharco?
Our model rates Pharco as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ismaily vs Pharco?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Ismaily wins, 2 draws, 3 Pharco wins.
League table
Egypt. Premier League (Relegation Group)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Wadi Degla | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17:9 | 50 |
| 9 |  ZED | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:14 | 48 |
| 10 |  National Bank of Egypt | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:14 | 47 |
| 11 |  Petrojet | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17:13 | 45 |
| 12 |  El Gouna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8:8 | 43 |
| 13 |  Modern Sport | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7:7 | 37 |
| 14 |  Tala'ea El-Gaish | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7:8 | 37 |
| 15 |  El Mokawloon | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12:9 | 35 |
| 16 |  Ghazl El Mahalla | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11:9 | 35 |
| 17 |  Al Ittihad Alexandria | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:12 | 35 |
| 18 |  Kahrbaa Alasmalia | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:15 | 31 |
| 19 |  Haras El Hodoud | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9:15 | 26 |
| 20 | Pharco | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5:12 | 22 |
| 21 | Ismaily | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3:10 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.