National Bank of Egypt vs Al Ittihad Alexandria: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
National Bank of Egyptvs
Al Ittihad AlexandriaNational Bank of Egypt edge Al Ittihad Alexandria at 49% win probability with a 74% model confidence level, supported by recent form and home advantage. A 2-1 home victory represents the modal scorecast, though the 23% draw probability reflects a closely balanced head-to-head record.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours National Bank of Egypt.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +National Bank of Egypt have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Model favours National Bank of Egypt (49% home win vs 28% away win), aligned with bookmaker odds (1.91 vs 3.05)
- Recent form tilts toward the hosts: mixed results (W-D-W-D-L) vs struggling visitors (L-L-L-D-W)
- Head-to-head heavily weighted toward draws (4 of 6 meetings), creating elevated draw risk (23%)
- Home advantage statistically favours National Bank of Egypt
- Scorecast model suggests 2-1 outcome; goal environment data unavailable
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
National Bank of Egypt carry the advantage in this Egyptian Premier League encounter. Bookmakers price them at 1.91 for a home win, implying 48% probability—closely aligned with our model's 49% reading. The hosts have shown stronger recent form (2 wins in 5) compared to Al Ittihad Alexandria (1 win in 5), and home advantage provides additional structural support.
The draw threat cannot be dismissed. Historical head-to-head data reveals a distinctly cautious pattern: 4 draws from 6 meetings, with recent scorelines dominated by 0-0 results. This 67% draw rate in previous encounters inflates the 23% draw probability meaningfully above typical benchmarks, warranting consideration at 4.025 odds for disciplined bettors.
Al Ittihad Alexandria's away form is concerning (L-L-L-D-W across recent matches), limiting their title credentials in this fixture. The visitor probability of 28% remains notably lower than the home team, reflecting both form disparity and ground disadvantage.
The scorecast hint of 2-1 suggests modest goal output expectation, though no explicit over/under lean is provided in the available data. Backers should note this represents a modal outcome among possible results, not a guaranteed scoreline.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, National Bank of Egypt or Al Ittihad Alexandria?
Our model rates National Bank of Egypt as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for National Bank of Egypt vs Al Ittihad Alexandria?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 National Bank of Egypt wins, 4 draws, 1 Al Ittihad Alexandria wins.
League table
Egypt. Premier League (Relegation Group)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Wadi Degla | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17:9 | 50 |
| 9 |  ZED | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:14 | 48 |
| 10 | National Bank of Egypt | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:14 | 47 |
| 11 |  Petrojet | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17:13 | 45 |
| 12 |  El Gouna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8:8 | 43 |
| 13 |  Modern Sport | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7:7 | 37 |
| 14 |  Tala'ea El-Gaish | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7:8 | 37 |
| 15 |  El Mokawloon | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12:9 | 35 |
| 16 |  Ghazl El Mahalla | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11:9 | 35 |
| 17 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:12 | 35 |
| 18 |  Kahrbaa Alasmalia | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:15 | 31 |
| 19 |  Haras El Hodoud | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9:15 | 26 |
| 20 |  Pharco | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5:12 | 22 |
| 21 |  Ismaily | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3:10 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.