El Mokawloon vs Modern Sport: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
El Mokawloonvs
Modern SportEl Mokawloon hold a modest edge at home, but this match is genuinely competitive with no clear favourite. All three outcomes carry meaningful probability, making this a cautious rather than confident pick.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +El Mokawloon have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bookmaker odds and home advantage support El Mokawloon, but confidence sits at just 0.43—well below conviction threshold
- Head-to-head history is tightly balanced: 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses across 6 meetings suggests these teams are evenly matched
- Both sides show inconsistent recent form; El Mokawloon's last five are four draws and a loss, while Modern Sport have mixed draws with a win and loss
- Model probability shows 39% home, 28% draw, 33% away—no outcome is heavily favoured; draw probability (0.28) reflects historical parity
- Score hint of 2-1 aligns with the model's lean but carries no predictive weight on its own
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The data presents a genuinely open contest. Implied odds from bookmakers place El Mokawloon at 39% (2.33 odds), Modern Sport at 34% (2.68 odds), and draws at 27% (3.36 odds). These are close enough that any outcome carries real probability. The model's 0.43 confidence—less than even-money—reflects this uncertainty.
Head-to-head metrics reinforce the competitive balance. Across six meetings, El Mokawloon have won just once while Modern Sport have won twice, with three draws recorded. Recent scorelines (1-2, 1-2, 2-2, 0-0, 0-0) show a pattern of tight, low-scoring encounters punctuated by occasional away wins. This is not a fixture where one team dominates.
Recent form offers no clear indicator of momentum. El Mokawloon show four draws and one loss over five matches—a cautious, defensive recent run. Modern Sport display more variance with two draws, one win, and one loss, suggesting slightly more attacking intent but less stability. Neither team enters with form-based confidence.
Home advantage does provide a tangible edge; it appears as a supporting signal and appears reflected in the 39% vs 33% probability split for home versus away. However, this advantage is modest rather than decisive, particularly given the head-to-head equilibrium and modern sport's demonstrated ability to win away (two away wins in six meetings).
Bettors should treat this match as genuinely competitive and avoid conviction plays. The draw at 28% implied probability offers modest value given the balanced history, while home and away outcomes are closely matched. Responsible approach: stake sizing should reflect the low confidence threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, El Mokawloon or Modern Sport?
Our model rates El Mokawloon as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for El Mokawloon vs Modern Sport?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 El Mokawloon wins, 3 draws, 2 Modern Sport wins.
League table
Egypt. Premier League (Relegation Group)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Wadi Degla | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17:9 | 50 |
| 9 |  ZED | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:14 | 48 |
| 10 |  National Bank of Egypt | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:14 | 47 |
| 11 |  Petrojet | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17:13 | 45 |
| 12 |  El Gouna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8:8 | 43 |
| 13 | Modern Sport | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7:7 | 37 |
| 14 |  Tala'ea El-Gaish | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7:8 | 37 |
| 15 | El Mokawloon | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12:9 | 35 |
| 16 |  Ghazl El Mahalla | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11:9 | 35 |
| 17 |  Al Ittihad Alexandria | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:12 | 35 |
| 18 |  Kahrbaa Alasmalia | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:15 | 31 |
| 19 |  Haras El Hodoud | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9:15 | 26 |
| 20 |  Pharco | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5:12 | 22 |
| 21 |  Ismaily | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3:10 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.