ZED vs Kahrbaa Alasmalia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
ZEDvs
Kahrbaa AlasmaliaZED are favoured at home with a 46% win probability, supported by superior head-to-head record (4-1-1), recent form advantage, and bookmaker consensus. A 2-1 home victory represents the model's central scenario, though the 27% draw probability warrants caution.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours ZED (4-1-1).
- +Recent form favours ZED.
- +ZED have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- ZED's head-to-head dominance (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) is the strongest signal; they've won 4 of 6 meetings
- Bookmaker odds at 2.23 for home win imply 41% probability, slightly lower than the model's 46% assessment
- Recent form favours ZED (W-D-D-W-L) versus Kahrbaa's mixed record (D-L-W-D-W), though both show inconsistency
- Model confidence of 73% reflects moderate conviction; draw and away win carry meaningful 27% probabilities each
- Score projection of 2-1 suggests a competitive match rather than dominant home performance
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
ZED enter as clear home favourites based on multiple converging signals. The 4-1-1 head-to-head record is particularly instructive, showing consistent superiority in this fixture. Bookmaker pricing at 2.23 acknowledges this edge, though our model assigns slightly higher probability (46% vs 41% implied), suggesting modest value on a home win.
Recent form provides secondary support: ZED's last five games show two wins against two draws and one loss, while Kahrbaa's away record demonstrates deeper inconsistency with alternating results. Home advantage compounds ZED's structural edge in this Egyptian Premier League encounter.
The 2-1 score projection indicates neither team is expected to dominate completely. This reflects Kahrbaa's proven ability to score (they've netted in recent away appearances) and suggests defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. The 27% draw probability should not be dismissed, as two of ZED's recent matches ended level.
Risk considerations: ZED's form remains volatile (the loss prior to two draws suggests concentration issues), and Kahrbaa's unpredictability away from home means upset potential exists at 27% combined non-home-win probability. Bettors should apply standard responsible-gambling principles and treat 46% probability as an edge, not certainty.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, ZED or Kahrbaa Alasmalia?
Our model rates ZED as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for ZED vs Kahrbaa Alasmalia?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 ZED wins, 1 draws, 1 Kahrbaa Alasmalia wins.
League table
Egypt. Premier League (Relegation Group)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Wadi Degla | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17:9 | 50 |
| 9 | ZED | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:14 | 48 |
| 10 |  National Bank of Egypt | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:14 | 47 |
| 11 |  Petrojet | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17:13 | 45 |
| 12 |  El Gouna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8:8 | 43 |
| 13 |  Modern Sport | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7:7 | 37 |
| 14 |  Tala'ea El-Gaish | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7:8 | 37 |
| 15 |  El Mokawloon | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12:9 | 35 |
| 16 |  Ghazl El Mahalla | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11:9 | 35 |
| 17 |  Al Ittihad Alexandria | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:12 | 35 |
| 18 | Kahrbaa Alasmalia | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:15 | 31 |
| 19 |  Haras El Hodoud | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9:15 | 26 |
| 20 |  Pharco | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5:12 | 22 |
| 21 |  Ismaily | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3:10 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.