Ghazl El Mahalla vs Haras El Hodoud: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ghazl El Mahallavs
Haras El HodoudHaras El Hodoud edges this contest with 40% win probability, though the matchup carries genuine uncertainty with a draw at 26%. The away side's superior recent form and head-to-head record clash against Ghazl El Mahalla's home advantage and bookmaker support.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Haras El Hodoud (0-3-3).
- +Recent form favours Haras El Hodoud.
- −Ghazl El Mahalla have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Model favours Haras El Hodoud (40% win probability) over home side (34%)
- Head-to-head decisively favours visitors: 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses for Haras El Hodoud across 6 meetings
- Recent form disparity: Haras El Hodoud showing 3 wins in last 5; Ghazl El Mahalla with 3 losses in last 5
- Score distribution suggests low-scoring affair; hint points to 1-2 scoreline
- Bookmaker odds favour home side (2.49 vs 2.61), but model diverges based on form and history
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
This Egypt Premier League fixture presents a clash of competing factors. While Ghazl El Mahalla holds bookmaker favour and home advantage, the analytical model weights away-side probabilities higher at 40% versus 34% for the hosts. This 6-percentage-point gap reflects the visiting side's structural advantages in the matchup.
Haras El Hodoud's historical edge is stark: zero losses to Ghazl El Mahalla across six meetings, with three wins and three draws. More pressingly, their recent form trajectory is sharply upward—three wins in the last five outings—while Ghazl El Mahalla has dropped three of their last five matches. Form reversals are rare; this gap is material.
Defensively, the data points toward a low-scoring encounter. The scoreHint of 1-2 and recent head-to-head results (recent scores: 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, 1-1, 2-1) suggest neither side generates prolific offence. A draw remains credible at 26% probability, particularly given three draws in the h2h record.
The odds-versus-model divergence warrants attention: bookmakers imply 36.5% home win probability versus the model's 34%, yet back Haras El Hodoud at 2.61 (35% implied). This modest variance suggests limited inefficiency, though the model's emphasis on form and h2h history offers a slight analytical edge to the away side. Betting should reflect the genuine uncertainty here—confidence is low (0.33).
Responsible perspective: with no outcome above 40% probability and low model confidence, this match suits cautious play or avoidance over full conviction bets.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ghazl El Mahalla or Haras El Hodoud?
Our model rates Haras El Hodoud as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ghazl El Mahalla vs Haras El Hodoud?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Ghazl El Mahalla wins, 3 draws, 3 Haras El Hodoud wins.
League table
Egypt. Premier League (Relegation Group)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Wadi Degla | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17:9 | 50 |
| 9 |  ZED | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:14 | 48 |
| 10 |  National Bank of Egypt | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:14 | 47 |
| 11 |  Petrojet | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17:13 | 45 |
| 12 |  El Gouna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8:8 | 43 |
| 13 |  Modern Sport | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7:7 | 37 |
| 14 |  Tala'ea El-Gaish | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7:8 | 37 |
| 15 |  El Mokawloon | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12:9 | 35 |
| 16 | Ghazl El Mahalla | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11:9 | 35 |
| 17 |  Al Ittihad Alexandria | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:12 | 35 |
| 18 |  Kahrbaa Alasmalia | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:15 | 31 |
| 19 | Haras El Hodoud | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9:15 | 26 |
| 20 |  Pharco | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5:12 | 22 |
| 21 |  Ismaily | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3:10 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.