Las Vegas Lights vs Tulsa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Las Vegas Lightsvs
TulsaOur model leans Tulsa (55% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Tulsa (0-2-4).
- +Recent form favours Tulsa.
- −Las Vegas Lights have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Tulsa (0-2-4).
- Recent form favours Tulsa.
- Las Vegas Lights have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Las Vegas Lights and Tulsa. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 23% for Las Vegas Lights, 22% for the draw and 55% for Tulsa.
Several signals point toward Tulsa. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Tulsa (0-2-4). Recent form favours Tulsa.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 Las Vegas Lights wins, 2 draws and 4 Tulsa wins. Recent scorelines: 3-2, 4-3, 1-4, 1-1, 1-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Las Vegas Lights show L-L-L-L-W across their recent outings, while Tulsa read L-W-W-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 49%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Tulsa" (1X2): we rate it 55% versus the 51% implied by odds of 1.84, an edge of 3.8 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Las Vegas Lights or Tulsa?
Our model rates Tulsa as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Las Vegas Lights vs Tulsa?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Las Vegas Lights wins, 2 draws, 4 Tulsa wins.
Match statistics
Referee: 60bc32d3f75a663f69d2aafeMatch story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–0)
Half-time score: Las Vegas Lights 0 – 0 Tulsa.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–0)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.