Greuther Furth vs Rot-Weiss Essen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Greuther Furthvs
Rot-Weiss EssenGreuther Furth is heavily favored at 92% implied probability, supported by recent form advantage, home ground, and bookmaker consensus. However, both teams are operating without three key players each, and head-to-head history shows this matchup is far more competitive than the odds suggest.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours Rot-Weiss Essen.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Greuther Furth are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Rot-Weiss Essen are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Greuther Furth have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Model confidence maxed at 1.0 for Greuther Furth home win; bookmaker odds at 1.001 reflect extreme certainty
- Recent form favors Greuther Furth, though their last five games show only one win amid three losses
- Head-to-head record actually favors Rot-Weiss Essen (3 wins vs 2 wins) across five meetings, creating sharp contradiction with current odds
- Both squads depleted: Greuther Furth missing Munz, Райх, and John M.; Rot-Weiss Essen missing Bouebari, Mause, and Gjasula K.
- Goal projection leans low with 1-0 scoreHint; over 2.5 goals priced at 3.28, suggesting tight defensive contest expected
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 19 | 4 | ||||
| 2 | 22 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 16 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 9 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 4 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model's maximum confidence in a Greuther Furth win is striking, yet the supporting signals paint a more nuanced picture. While bookmaker odds, recent form, and home advantage all point to the favorites, the head-to-head record shows Rot-Weiss Essen have actually won three of the last five encounters compared to Greuther Furth's two victories. This historical edge for the visitors is not reflected in the current pricing structure.
Both teams face significant squad depletion with three key absences each. Greuther Furth will be without Munz, Райх, and John M., while Rot-Weiss Essen cannot call upon Bouebari, Mause, and Gjasula K. The impact of these injuries is asymmetric and difficult to quantify from the data alone, yet both sides' attacking and defensive capabilities may be compromised. This mutual weakness could compress the odds differential seen in the market.
The goal projection signals a low-scoring affair with a 1-0 hint and over 2.5 goals priced at 3.28. This suggests both defenses are expected to remain organized despite personnel losses. Recent head-to-head scores have ranged from 0-2 shutouts to a 3-2 thriller, indicating volatility in how this fixture has unfolded historically.
Odds at 1.001 for a home win represent near-certainty pricing that leaves minimal margin for variance or upset potential. While Greuther Furth carries legitimate advantages, the risk-reward profile for backing them at such odds is poor. Rot-Weiss Essen at 20-to-1 offers substantially greater value given their superior head-to-head record and mutual squad compromises, though they remain underdogs on the available signals.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Greuther Furth or Rot-Weiss Essen?
Our model rates Greuther Furth as the most likely outcome at 92% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Greuther Furth vs Rot-Weiss Essen?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 Greuther Furth wins, 0 draws, 3 Rot-Weiss Essen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Referee: 5e271d6bb1b47b36c0e920f6Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Greuther Furth make it count (Futkeu (29')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Greuther Furth 1 – 0 Rot-Weiss Essen.
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Hrgota (47'), Cuber Potocnik (68')). Score moves to 2–1.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (2–1)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.