Bron Radom vs Warta Sieradz: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (68% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Bron Radom (4-0-2).
- −Recent form favours Bron Radom.
- −Bron Radom have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Bron Radom (4-0-2).
- Recent form favours Bron Radom.
- Bron Radom have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: a tight, low-scoring game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Bron Radom and Warta Sieradz. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 15% for Bron Radom, 68% for the draw and 17% for Warta Sieradz.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 4 Bron Radom wins, 0 draws and 2 Warta Sieradz wins. Recent scorelines: 3-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Bron Radom show W-W-D-D-L across their recent outings, while Warta Sieradz read L-D-D-W-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Over 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 40% versus the 25% implied by odds of 4.04, an edge of 15.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bron Radom or Warta Sieradz?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bron Radom vs Warta Sieradz?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Bron Radom wins, 0 draws, 2 Warta Sieradz wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Warta Sieradz make it count (Owczarek (20')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Half-time score: Bron Radom 0 – 1 Warta Sieradz.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)
League table
Poland Championship. Liga 3. Group 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 79:29 | 81 | |
| 2 | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 75:30 | 68 | |
| 3 | 33 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 63:34 | 68 | |
| 4 | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 61:41 | 62 | |
| 5 | 33 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 74:45 | 57 | |
| 6 | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 52:50 | 53 | |
| 7 | 33 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 68:63 | 51 | |
| 8 | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 46:45 | 49 | |
| 9 | 33 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 64:55 | 46 | |
| 10 | 33 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 71:62 | 44 | |
| 11 | 33 | 12 | 16 | 5 | 49:63 | 41 | |
| 12 | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 54:57 | 40 | |
| 13 | 33 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 45:61 | 37 | |
| 14 | 33 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 40:56 | 36 | |
| 15 | 33 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 49:72 | 34 | |
| 16 | 33 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 38:53 | 34 | |
| 17 | 34 | 7 | 23 | 4 | 40:79 | 25 | |
| 18 | 33 | 4 | 26 | 3 | 27:100 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.