← All predictions
Poland Championship. Liga 3

Bron Radom vs Warta Sieradz: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Bron Radom Bron RadomvsWarta Sieradz Warta Sieradz
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 1-1

Our model leans the draw (68% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Bron Radom15%
Draw68%
2 · Warta Sieradz17%
1 · Bron RadomDraw2 · Warta Sieradz
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

O/U 2.5Over 2.54.04+15.5%
1X2Bron Radom14.00+8.1%
1X2Warta Sieradz4.85-1.6%
1X2Draw1.25-6.4%
O/U 2.5Under 2.51.20-23.6%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Bron RadomWWDDL
Warta SieradzLDDWD
Team strength rating
Bron Radom
51
Warta Sieradz
35

Expected goals

1.17Bron Radom
xG
1.12Warta Sieradz
Over 2.5 goals40%
Both teams to score47%

Most likely scorelines

1-113.3%
1-011.8%
0-111.3%
0-010.1%
2-17.8%
1-27.4%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Bron Radom Warta Sieradz

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.25Avoid (-6.4%)
Total goalsUnder 2.51.20Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
0101162
1121373
27842
3332
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Bron Radom and Warta Sieradz. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 15% for Bron Radom, 68% for the draw and 17% for Warta Sieradz.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 4 Bron Radom wins, 0 draws and 2 Warta Sieradz wins. Recent scorelines: 3-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Bron Radom show W-W-D-D-L across their recent outings, while Warta Sieradz read L-D-D-W-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Over 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 40% versus the 25% implied by odds of 4.04, an edge of 15.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Bron Radom or Warta Sieradz?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Bron Radom vs Warta Sieradz?

A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 4 Bron Radom wins, 0 draws, 2 Warta Sieradz wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

20'Owczarek

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'01

Warta Sieradz make it count (Owczarek (20')). It's 0–1 at this point.

20'Owczarek
Half-time

Half-time score: Bron Radom 0 – 1 Warta Sieradz.

45–75'01

The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–1)

75–90'+01

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)

Full time: Bron Radom 01 Warta Sieradz

League table

Poland Championship. Liga 3. Group 1
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Legia Warsaw II33264379:2981
2LKS 1926 Lomza33217575:3068
3Warta Sieradz33205863:3468
4Wigry Suwalki33199561:4162
5Troszyn331710674:4557
6Wisla PLock II331510852:5053
7Widzew Lodz II331614368:6351
8Jagiellonia II341413746:4549
9Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki331313764:5546
10Zabkovia Zabki331315571:6244
11Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki331216549:6341
12Mlava331115754:5740
13Olimpia Elblag331016745:6137
14Bron Radom33915940:5636
15GKS Belchatow33917749:7234
16Wikielec33917738:5334
17KS Wasilkow34723440:7925
18MLKS Znicz Biala Piska33426327:10015
Promotion - Division 2 Promotion - Division 2 (Promotion - Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.