Vasteras SK vs Goteborg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Vasteras SK (37% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Goteborg (0-2-1).
- +Recent form favours Vasteras SK.
- −Vasteras SK are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Goteborg are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Vasteras SK have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Goteborg (0-2-1).
- Recent form favours Vasteras SK.
- Vasteras SK are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Vasteras SK and Goteborg. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 37% for Vasteras SK, 32% for the draw and 30% for Goteborg.
Several signals point toward Vasteras SK. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Vasteras SK. Goteborg are dealing with notable absentees.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 0 Vasteras SK wins, 2 draws and 1 Goteborg wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 1-1, 2-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Vasteras SK show W-D-L-L-W across their recent outings, while Goteborg read D-W-L-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Goteborg" (1X2): we rate it 30% versus the 28% implied by odds of 3.34, an edge of 2.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vasteras SK or Goteborg?
Our model rates Vasteras SK as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vasteras SK vs Goteborg?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Vasteras SK wins, 2 draws, 1 Goteborg wins.
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24:10 | 25 | |
| 2 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16:11 | 18 | |
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22:10 | 17 | |
| 4 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17:12 | 17 | |
| 5 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:11 | 15 | |
| 6 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | 14 | |
| 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19:13 | 13 | |
| 8 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:11 | 12 | |
| 9 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 12 | |
| 10 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:17 | 12 | |
| 11 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11:12 | 10 | |
| 12 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 15:18 | 10 | |
| 13 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10:14 | 9 | |
| 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8:18 | 7 | |
| 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7:15 | 6 | |
| 16 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 10:25 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.