Deportivo de La Coruna vs Las Palmas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (44% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Deportivo de La Coruna are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Las Palmas are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Deportivo de La Coruna have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Deportivo de La Coruna are dealing with notable absentees.
- Las Palmas are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Deportivo de La Coruna and Las Palmas. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 29% for Deportivo de La Coruna, 44% for the draw and 27% for Las Palmas.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Deportivo de La Coruna wins, 3 draws and 2 Las Palmas wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 2-1, 3-0, 0-1, 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Deportivo de La Coruna show W-L-W-L-D across their recent outings, while Las Palmas read D-W-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo de La Coruna or Las Palmas?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo de La Coruna vs Las Palmas?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Deportivo de La Coruna wins, 3 draws, 2 Las Palmas wins.
League table
Spain. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41 | 24 | 10 | 7 | 86:60 | 79 | |
| 2 | 41 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 64:42 | 77 | |
| 3 | 41 | 21 | 12 | 8 | 80:63 | 71 | |
| 4 | 41 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 73:52 | 70 | |
| 5 | 41 | 19 | 9 | 13 | 55:39 | 70 | |
| 6 | 41 | 19 | 10 | 12 | 68:50 | 69 | |
| 7 | 41 | 19 | 10 | 12 | 47:33 | 69 | |
| 8 | 41 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 51:38 | 67 | |
| 9 | 41 | 17 | 15 | 9 | 56:60 | 60 | |
| 10 | 41 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 56:54 | 59 | |
| 11 | 41 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 50:63 | 58 | |
| 12 | 41 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 58:53 | 58 | |
| 13 | 41 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 62:53 | 58 | |
| 14 | 41 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 49:54 | 48 | |
| 15 | 41 | 12 | 19 | 10 | 51:60 | 46 | |
| 16 | 41 | 12 | 19 | 10 | 44:56 | 46 | |
| 17 | 41 | 11 | 20 | 10 | 40:57 | 43 | |
| 18 | 41 | 10 | 18 | 13 | 42:51 | 43 | |
| 19 | 41 | 10 | 21 | 10 | 47:68 | 40 | |
| 20 | 41 | 9 | 22 | 10 | 40:62 | 37 | |
| 21 | 41 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 38:67 | 36 | |
| 22 | 41 | 8 | 21 | 12 | 35:57 | 36 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.