Chrobry Glogow vs LKS Lodz: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chrobry Glogowvs
LKS LodzThe model favours a draw at 41% confidence, with bookmaker odds supporting this outcome. However, modest confidence and competitive away odds (3.2) reflect genuine uncertainty in a matchup where both sides face form challenges.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours LKS Lodz (2-0-4).
- −Chrobry Glogow have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Model pick is draw (41% confidence); home win 27%, away win 31%
- Bookmaker odds favour draw (2.09) vs home (3.26) and away (3.2)
- LKS Lodz holds head-to-head edge: 4 wins, 2 losses, 0 draws in 6 meetings
- Both teams in poor form: Chrobry 4 losses in last 5; LKS Lodz 4 losses in last 5
- Score hint suggests 1-1; recent h2h shows volatile, high-scoring pattern (1-3, 5-3, 2-1, 1-2, 3-0)
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Bookmaker sentiment aligns with the model's draw prediction, pricing the stalemate at 2.09 compared to 3.26 for home and 3.2 for away. This consensus on the draw—despite modest 41% confidence—reflects genuine equilibrium in the matchup and tight odds across all outcomes.
LKS Lodz's historical advantage is unmistakable: 4 wins versus Chrobry's 2 in six meetings, with no draws in the series. This h2h record directly supports away value, yet the model weights it at only 31% probability, suggesting current form and home-ground factors carry substantial offsetting weight.
Both sides are in acute distress. Chrobry has lost four of its last five matches at home; LKS Lodz has won just once in five away. Neither team generates confidence, which explains why the model defaults to a draw rather than backing a struggling side to find form.
The score hint of 1-1 contrasts sharply with the recent h2h pattern of volatile, often lopsided contests (5-3, 3-0, 2-1). A low-scoring stalemate would mark a departure from the series norm, adding caution to any draw conviction. Bettors should note: 41% confidence does not constitute a strong signal.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chrobry Glogow or LKS Lodz?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chrobry Glogow vs LKS Lodz?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Chrobry Glogow wins, 0 draws, 4 LKS Lodz wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.