Avai vs Criciuma: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Avai (35% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Avai are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Criciuma are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Avai have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Avai are dealing with notable absentees.
- Criciuma are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Avai and Criciuma. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 35% for Avai, 32% for the draw and 33% for Criciuma.
Several signals point toward Avai. The odds point to a clear favourite. Criciuma are dealing with notable absentees. Avai have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Avai wins, 1 draws and 3 Criciuma wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Avai show L-W-D-L-D across their recent outings, while Criciuma read D-D-D-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Avai or Criciuma?
Our model rates Avai as the most likely outcome at 35% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Avai vs Criciuma?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Avai wins, 1 draws, 3 Criciuma wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:7 | 20 | |
| 2 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16:9 | 19 | |
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13:7 | 19 | |
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16:11 | 19 | |
| 5 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:10 | 18 | |
| 6 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11:12 | 16 | |
| 7 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13:10 | 16 | |
| 8 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9:6 | 16 | |
| 9 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17:15 | 14 | |
| 10 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:9 | 14 | |
| 11 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:11 | 14 | |
| 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:11 | 13 | |
| 13 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | 13 | |
| 14 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9:10 | 12 | |
| 15 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:13 | 10 | |
| 16 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4:5 | 10 | |
| 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 | |
| 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12:18 | 8 | |
| 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 9:20 | 7 | |
| 20 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 6:22 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.