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Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B

Avai vs Criciuma: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Avai AvaivsCriciuma Criciuma
Our predictionAvai to win
Confidence: Low · 34/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans Avai (35% probability), low confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Avai35%
Draw32%
2 · Criciuma33%
1 · AvaiDraw2 · Criciuma
Full team comparison

Recent form

AvaiLWDLD
CriciumaDDDDL
Team strength rating
Avai
46
Criciuma
50

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%
1-010.3%
0-19.0%
2-18.7%
1-27.5%
0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.39Avai
xG
1.21Criciuma
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Avai Criciuma

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Avai win2.68Fair
Double chanceAvai or drawInfo

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07952
1101283
27952
3342
411
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Avai2.68+0.4%
1X2Draw2.88-0.0%
1X2Criciuma2.79-0.4%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Avai and Criciuma. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 35% for Avai, 32% for the draw and 33% for Criciuma.

Several signals point toward Avai. The odds point to a clear favourite. Criciuma are dealing with notable absentees. Avai have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Avai wins, 1 draws and 3 Criciuma wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3, 1-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Avai show L-W-D-L-D across their recent outings, while Criciuma read D-D-D-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Avai or Criciuma?

Our model rates Avai as the most likely outcome at 35% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Avai vs Criciuma?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 2 Avai wins, 1 draws, 3 Criciuma wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Sao Bernardo1062216:720
2Clube Nautico Capibaribe1063116:919
3Sport Club do Recife1051413:719
4Vila Nova1051416:1119
5Fortaleza EC1052314:1018
6Goias Esporte Clube1054111:1216
7Novorizontino1042413:1016
8Esporte Clube Juventude114349:616
9CRB Maceio1044217:1514
10Criciuma1032511:914
11Athletic Club MG1032512:1114
12Ceara1033411:1113
13Operario Ferroviario1033410:1313
14Atletico Clube Goianiense103439:1012
15Avai1024410:1310
16Cuiaba101274:510
17Botafogo Ribeirao Preto1025311:119
18Londrina1026212:188
19Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta102719:207
20America Minas Gerais110836:223
Promotion - Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A Promotion - Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B (Promotion - Play-off: Final) Relegation - Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Serie C (First stage)

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.