Leningradets vs Volgar Astrakhan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leningradetsvs
Volgar AstrakhanLeningradets edge this encounter at 51% implied probability, backed by home advantage and bookmaker support, but Volgar Astrakhan's superior head-to-head record (3 wins, 3 draws vs 0 wins) and recent away form create genuine competition. A modest 59% model confidence reflects genuine uncertainty in a closely matched fixture.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Volgar Astrakhan (0-3-3).
- +Leningradets have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Leningradets hold home advantage with recent domestic form showing 3 wins in last 5 (W-W-L-D-W)
- Volgar Astrakhan dominate the h2h record: 3 wins and 3 draws from 6 meetings, with Leningradets yet to win
- Bookmaker odds align with model lean toward home, though implied probabilities (52.8% home, 28% away) show modest margin
- Away side has solid recent form (W-W-D-D-L), suggesting they arrive competitive
- Score hint of 2-1 suggests a tight, low-scoring contest with slight home control
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model identifies Leningradets as the slight favorite at 51% win probability, supported by home-field advantage and a bookmaker bias toward the hosts reflected in 1.72 odds. However, this represents a marginal edge rather than conviction—the 59% confidence level indicates meaningful uncertainty persists.
A critical countervailing signal emerges from the h2h record: Volgar Astrakhan have taken 3 victories and 3 draws across 6 meetings, while Leningradets have yet to register a win in this fixture. This historical dominance cannot be dismissed, especially when recent scores show volatility (3-0, 0-0, 1-2, 1-1, 1-0), suggesting unpredictability in outcomes.
Form analysis reveals both sides in reasonable shape. Leningradets show 3 wins in their last 5 matches with one loss and one draw, while Volgar Astrakhan's recent away record (W-W-D-D-L) demonstrates resilience on the road and a recent draw, though interrupted by one loss. Neither team presents obvious form collapse.
The 2-1 score hint and draw probability of 18% (vs. 31% for away win) suggest the model expects a tight, competitive match controlled slightly by the home side, but with real vulnerability to Volgar's attacking threat. Bettors should note the 3.24 away odds represent fair value given the h2h dynamics and form signals.
Given the mixed signals—home advantage and bookmaker support versus h2h superiority and competitive away form—this is a fixture where variance remains high and betting should reflect the genuine margin of uncertainty, not overcommit to a narrow home edge.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leningradets or Volgar Astrakhan?
Our model rates Leningradets as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leningradets vs Volgar Astrakhan?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Leningradets wins, 3 draws, 3 Volgar Astrakhan wins.
League table
Russian Championship. League 2. Division A. Gold| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sibir Novosibirsk | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26:17 | 28 |
| 2 | Leningradets | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 17:20 | 27 |
| 3 |  Tekstilshchik Ivanovo | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25:16 | 26 |
| 4 |  Veles Moscow | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 16:8 | 24 |
| 5 |  Mashuk-KMV Pyatigorsk | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 17:10 | 20 |
| 6 |  Rodina Moscow II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16:17 | 16 |
| 7 |  Torpedo Miass | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10:14 | 16 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15:17 | 14 |
| 9 |  Kaluga | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 12:18 | 13 |
| 10 |  Irtysh Omsk | 15 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10:27 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.