Athletic Club MG vs Fortaleza EC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Athletic Club MGvs
Fortaleza ECOur model leans the draw (35% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Athletic Club MG are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Fortaleza EC are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Athletic Club MG have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Athletic Club MG are dealing with notable absentees.
- Fortaleza EC are dealing with notable absentees.
- Athletic Club MG have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
With limited data on this fixture, the read here is driven by the market. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 33% for Athletic Club MG, 35% for the draw and 32% for Fortaleza EC — treat this as a lighter, odds-led view.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Athletic Club MG or Fortaleza EC?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 35% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Athletic Club MG vs Fortaleza EC?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sao Bernardo | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:7 | 20 |
| 2 |  Clube Nautico Capibaribe | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16:9 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sport Club do Recife | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Vila Nova | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16:11 | 19 |
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 6 |  Goias Esporte Clube | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11:12 | 16 |
| 7 |  Novorizontino | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13:10 | 16 |
| 8 |  Esporte Clube Juventude | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9:6 | 16 |
| 9 |  CRB Maceio | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 10 |  Criciuma | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:9 | 14 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 12 |  Ceara | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:11 | 13 |
| 13 |  Operario Ferroviario | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | 13 |
| 14 |  Atletico Clube Goianiense | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9:10 | 12 |
| 15 |  Avai | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Cuiaba | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4:5 | 10 |
| 17 |  Botafogo Ribeirao Preto | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12:18 | 8 |
| 19 |  Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 9:20 | 7 |
| 20 |  America Minas Gerais | 11 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 6:22 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.